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AFC Team Strengths and Weaknesses

by Richard Harris March 1, 2001

With the free agent signing period starting on Friday and the NFL draft set for April 21, NFL clubs are scrambling to get under the league-mandated salary cap limit and will continue to rework their rosters over the next few months. I have assessed each AFC team’s major strengths and weaknesses, which will give you an idea of where they stand and will allow you to grade their offseason performance.

AFC East

Buffalo Bills - The Bills are in the unenviable position of not having made the playoffs last year and struggling with salary cap issues. Their cap problems forced them to dump one of their highly paid quarterbacks, Doug Flutie. Rob Johnson is now the undisputed starter, and even though there is no question that he is physically gifted, Johnson has yet to prove that he can stay healthy for a full season or for even half of a season.

In order to be successful with the fragile Johnson, the Bills will need a strong running game. They seem content with the tailback tandem of Sammie Morris and Shawn Bryson, but they should not ignore their offensive line, which is overrated and in need of an overhaul.

The Bills also cannot afford to let their strong defense slip, but cap problems will make this difficult. Since re-signing WR Eric Moulds to a big contract last month, the club has already released Pro Bowl NT Ted Washington, and it may lose DE Marcellus Wiley to free agency. Though not a household name, I consider Wiley to be one of the top five unrestricted free agents available, and he would be sorely missed. As for the rest of the defense, Buffalo has one of the league’s top linebacking corps, but it needs to upgrade the secondary.

Shopping List: backup quarterback, guard, tackle, defensive tackle, defensive end, cornerback, and safety.

Indianapolis Colts - The Colts are easy to analyze -- they need defense! They could use help at just about every position, and they especially need to tighten up against the run. Last year’s No. 1 pick, MLB Rob Morris from BYU, missed most of his rookie season due to injury, and he gives the team a player to build around. Defensive end Chad Bratzke, defensive tackle Ellis Johnson, and outside linebacker Mike Peterson are other solid players, but beyond them, there is mediocre talent.

On offense, the Colts should stay intact, and they could become the St. Louis Rams of the AFC by adding a few new elements. Specifically, they need reliable backups for QB Peyton Manning and RB Edgerrin James, and they would be even more explosive by adding a consistent threat to start alongside Marvin Harrison at wide receiver.

Shopping List: backup quarterback, backup running back, wide receiver, and all defensive positions.

Miami Dolphins - In order to repeat as AFC East Champions, the Dolphins must improve their anemic offense and must re-sign or replace star defenders who are free agents. Miami finished last season ranked sixth in total defense thanks to Pro Bowlers such as DEs Jason Taylor and Trace Armstrong and free safety Brock Marion, all of whom are free agents. Taylor has been given the franchise tag, so he will probably stay put, but Marion and Armstrong are likely to end up elsewhere. The club could also lose starting linebacker Derrick Rodgers and backup end Richie Owens. Youngster Kenny Mixon should fill in nicely for Armstrong, but there are no clear replacements for Marion and Rodgers.

On offense, Jay Fiedler is clearly not the answer at quarterback, and the club will likely try to sign free agent Brad Johnson or draft a player such as Drew Brees. Another concern is wide receiver. Veteran wideout Tony Martin has been waived, and Oronde Gadsden and O.J. McDuffie have chronic injury problems, and both lack speed.

Kicker Olindo Mare is also an unrestricted free agent. Being such a large part of the Dolphins’ offense and one of the best at his position, the Dolphins will likely suffer without him.

Shopping List: quarterback, wide receiver, linebackers, free safety, and re-sign Mare.

New England Patriots: Let’s keep it simple here and say what the Patriots do not need: a quarterback, linebackers, and a strong safety. Anywhere else, help is wanted. To make matters worse, DT Chad Eaton, arguably the team’s best lineman, is an unrestricted free agent. A quick fix for the Pats would be to trade Drew Bledsoe to a team like Seattle that has extra draft picks and needs a quarterback.

Shopping List: running back, wide receiver, tight end, offensive linemen, defensive linemen, and cornerback.

New York Jets - One of the Jets’ biggest problems last season was the play of quarterback Vinny Testaverde, but the good news is that second-year pro Chad Pennington is waiting in the wings and should see significant action in the upcoming season. With quarterback taken care of, the club needs to find a No. 1 receiver, a role Wayne Chrebet cannot handle. Other offensive needs include a young backup for RB Curtis Martin and a more reliable kicker than John Hall.

On defense, the team is strong at linebacker, cornerback, and strong safety, but with the switch to a 4-3 alignment and DT Jason Ferguson being an unrestricted free agent, the team needs capable bodies to boost an already suspect area.

Shopping List: backup RB, wide receiver, defensive linemen, free safety, and kicker.

AFC Central

Baltimore Ravens - The first order of business for the World Champions is to make a decision on their quarterback. Starter Trent Dilfer is an unrestricted free agent, and the club is likely to go after Brad Johnson, a protégé of head coach Brian Billick, rather than re-signing Dilfer. Johnson, combined with developing wide receivers Brandon Stokley and Travis Taylor, should add some spark to the Ravens’ often-listless offense, though veteran Qadry Ismail is not a quality No. 1 wideout.

The club must also deal with center Jeff Mitchell, outside linebacker Jamie Sharper, and strong safety Kim Herring, starters who may leave via free agency. Corey Harris and Cornell Brown are capable replacements for Herring and Sharper, respectively, but no such player exists behind Mitchell.

Shopping List: quarterback, wide receiver, and center.

Cincinnati Bengals - Clearly, the number-one priority in Cincinnati is to keep RB Corey Dillon, the top free agent available at any position. The Bengals have already named Dillon a transition player, meaning that they can match any offer that he receives from another club.

Two areas where the team appears to be in good shape are at wide receiver and linebacker. Veteran wideout Darnay Scott, who missed all of last season with an injury, will join second-year pros Peter Warrick, Danny Farmer, and Ron Dugans. At linebacker, Takeo Spikes is a Pro-Bowl caliber player on the outside and Brian Simmons, who was injured for most of 2000, is an up-and-coming middle linebacker.

As for the rest of the team, talent is needed almost everywhere, with the greatest concerns being at left tackle and defensive end. Also, a veteran quarterback will be brought in just in case Akili Smith flounders again.

Shopping List: quarterback, tight end, offensive linemen, defensive linemen, cornerback, and kicker.

Cleveland Browns - It is rumored that the Browns’ biggest priority is the same as Cincinnati’s -- Dillon. The two intrastate rivals have a lot of cap room to sign the free agent RB, but the Bengals have the edge with the right to match any offer. If Cleveland cannot steal Dillon away from the Bengals, the club could pursue other free agents such as Tiki Barber or Charlie Garner, or it could draft a back such as Deuce McAlister or LaDainian Tomlinson.

A star running back would go a long way toward giving the Browns a respectable offense. Of course, the team is relying on a lot of youth at the other skill positions, but quarterback Tim Couch, tight end Aaron Shea, and wideouts Kevin Johnson, Dennis Northcutt, and JaJuan Dawson have outstanding potential as a group.

Defensively, the team is in good shape at end with last year’s No. 1 pick Courtney Brown and Keith McKenzie, but it could use bolstering everywhere else, especially at defensive tackle.

Shopping List: running back, defensive tackle, linebacker, cornerback, and strong safety.

Jacksonville Jaguars - Being more over the cap than any other team in the league, the Jaguars face some difficult offseason decisions. Jacksonville is trying to rework quarterback Mark Brunell's deal -- he has a cap figure of $13.4 million for 2001, and wide receiver Keenan McCardell, offensive tackle Leon Searcy, and linebackers Hardy Nickerson and Lonnie Marts are other possible cap casualties. Of these potential cuts, only Nickerson can be replaced with a solid player already on the roster (MLB T.J. Slaughter).

If the club is able to keep or find capable replacements for the players mentioned above, it would not have any glaring weaknesses. However, the Jags will need to fortify their bench in case they are hit hard with injuries like they were last season.

Shopping List: wide receiver, offensive tackle, linebacker, and depth everywhere.

Pittsburgh Steelers - After losing three controversial games and still finishing with a 9-7 record, the Steelers are a team to watch in 2001. Their main priority is re-signing Jerome Bettis. The former four-time Pro Bowl running back appears to be leaning toward returning to Pittsburgh, and the Steelers are in good position to meet his contract demands because they have only four other unrestricted free agents, none of whom are starters.

The club’s other main offensive concern is finding a center to replace the recently released and former Pro Bowler Dermontti Dawson. Meanwhile, the team is counting on QB Kordell Stewart to build on his strong finish of last season, and hoping that wide receivers Plaxico Burress and Troy Edwards, former No. 1 picks in 2000 and ’99, respectively, will develop quickly.

Defensively, the Steelers are fairly solid, but they need a pass rushing end and a playmaker at free safety.

Shopping List: quarterback, center, defensive end, and free safety.

Tennessee Titans - Arguably the strongest team in the NFL last season, the Titans find themselves scrambling to keep their main core intact, and if they can, they will be one of the frontrunners to make it to Super Bowl XXXVI.

With veteran wideouts Carl Pickens and Yancey Thigpen past their prime and expected to be cut for cap relief, re-signing unrestricted free agent Derrick Mason is a top priority. With the receiving corps hit hard by injuries last season, Mason emerged as a reliable full-time player, and he has always been one of the league’s top return specialists. Mason, along with Kevin Dyson who missed most of last season with a knee injury, would give the Titans a capable tandem at wide receiver, though a quality No. 3 would be a welcome addition.

On defense, the Titans have two unrestricted starters, DE Kenny Holmes and CB Denard Walker. Both players will be highly coveted and not easily re-signed.

The Titans’ other needs include depth for the offensive line and a replacement for aging kicker Al Del Greco.

Shopping List: wide receiver, offensive line depth, defensive end, and kicker.

AFC West

Denver Broncos - After ranking 25th in total defense and allowing over 23 points per game, the Broncos’ top offseason priority will be upgrading their defense. Outside linebacker John Mobley is an unrestricted free agent, but the team is confident that second-year pro Ian Gold is ready to replace him. Starting cornerbacks Ray Crockett and Terrell Buckley likely won't be back, leaving Deltha O'Neal, last year's first-round draft choice, and journeyman Jimmy Spencer as the starters. The club will be looking for a free agent such as Denard Walker to give more stability at the position. The team will also be looking for a top-notch defensive end that can not only rush the passer but also defend the run.

The team is expected to lose backup QB Gus Frerotte to free agency, so finding a capable signal caller behind the oft-injured Brian Griese is a concern for the offense. Also, left tackle Tony Jones was recently released to gain cap room, so re-signing guard Dan Neil becomes more essential if the Broncos want to continue to have one of the more dominant offensive lines in the league.

A position where the team appears to have too much talent is at tailback. Terrell Davis, Olandis Gary, and Mike Anderson are relatively young 1,000-yard rushers. One solution would be to move either Gary or Anderson to fullback and not re-sign veteran Howard Griffith, a former Pro Bowler at the position.

Shopping List: backup quarterback, backup wide receiver, left tackle, defensive end, and cornerback.

Kansas City Chiefs - In an effort to gain salary cap relief, the team has been working on restructuring the contract of Elvis Grbac. The Chiefs’ starting quarterback will receive a $10 million bonus if he's on the roster by Friday, which also happens to be the day that all NFL teams must be at the salary cap spending limit for 2001. Dick Vermeil, the former St. Louis Rams coach who became head man with the Chiefs last month, has said he would like to retain the 30-year-old Grbac, who went to the Pro Bowl after passing for more than 4,000 yards and 28 touchdowns last year. However, Grbac has refused to restructure his deal and wants to test the free agent market.

Anticipating that Grbac would have to be released, the Chiefs have already begun preliminary talks with the Rams for quarterback Trent Green. Reportedly, the Chiefs have offered first- and second-round draft picks in exchange for Green and a second-round choice. 

The Chiefs ended the season almost $30 million over the cap and have already released several veterans, including running backs Donnell Bennett and Kimble Anders, defensive tackle Chester McGlockton and cornerback James Hasty. The club also declined to put the franchise-player designation on guard Will Shields, who made his sixth Pro Bowl appearance last season and is now an unrestricted free agent. The Chiefs want very much to retain Shields, but making him their franchise player would have required them to offer a one-year contract worth about $4.8 million, the average of the five highest-paid offensive linemen. 

The release of Hasty and the potential free-agent losses of Shields, center Tim Grunhard, and cornerback Eric Warfield, make the Kansas City offensive line and secondary potential weak spots. Of course, the Chiefs will also be on their annual search for a featured running back, and their cap problems may exclude them from signing the likes of Corey Dillon or Charlie Garner.

Shopping List: quarterback, running back, center, guard, defensive tackle, and cornerback.

Oakland Raiders - Coming within one game of the Super Bowl, the Raiders do not need to make many changes, and with WR Andre Rison, TE Rickey Dudley, DE Regan Upshaw, and linebacker William Thomas being the team’s only significant free agents, the club is in a position to keep their core intact.

Thomas is probably the player that the team can least afford to lose, and he should be re-signed. Rison will also likely be re-signed because James Jett, who is a free agent as well, is expected to be allowed to go elsewhere, and second-year pro Jerry Porter does not appear ready to move into the starting lineup.

Another Oakland free agent is strong safety Marquez Pope. The club may make an effort to keep him, but he is a liability in the secondary.

Shopping List: wide receiver, defensive end, linebacker, and strong safety.

San Diego Chargers - Soon after Buffalo announced that they would release Doug Flutie, GM John Butler, who held the same position with the Bills last season, announced that the Chargers would be waiving QB Ryan Leaf. It may be a coincidence, but look for the club to sign Flutie to be their starter for the immediate future and use their top overall pick on Michael Vick of Virginia Tech. The presence of Flutie would allow Vick to sit and learn for year, similar to how the Eagles and Vikings handled Donovan McNabb and Daunte Culpepper, respectively.

Even if the Chargers can solve their quarterback woes in this fashion, they would still be left with numerous holes to fill. On offense, they desperately need a quality running back, and the offensive line needs help at guard and tackle. Also, if kicker John Carney, an unrestricted free agent, is allowed to sign with another team, the Chargers would lose one of their few consistent performers. Defensively, the team is strong at tackle, linebacker, and safety, but cornerback and defensive end are positions in need of upgrading.

Shopping List: quarterback, running back, guard, tackle, defensive end, cornerback, and kicker.

Seattle Seahawks - The Seahawks have the seventh and tenth picks in April's draft, and they need to upgrade their defense that ranked dead last in 2000. However, with the club not expected to re-sign Jon Kitna, an unrestricted free agent, quarterback has to be the number-one priority in Seattle. The team has several options: sign a free agent such as Brad Johnson, trade for a player such as Trent Green, package several draft picks to move up to select Michael Vick, or draft Drew Brees. The free agent route would allow them to focus on their defensive needs in the draft, with Johnson and Elvis Grbac being the only available players who would appear to be an upgrade over Kitna.

The team has other offensive concerns, including re-signing free agent guard Pete Kendall and finding a starting tight end. Also, veteran wideout Sean Dawkins is not expected to be re-signed, leaving Derrick Mayes and second-year pro Darrell Jackson as the starters. Both players are solid possession receivers, but neither has the speed to be a deep threat.

Defensively, the Seahawks must improve against the run more than anything else, and they can do this by retooling at defensive tackle and middle linebacker. Also, starting safeties Jay Bellamy and Kerry Joseph are free agents. Look for one of them to be re-signed, with backup Reggie Tongue starting for the other.

Shopping List: quarterback, tight end, wide receiver, guard, defensive tackle, middle linebacker, and safety.

 

 
 
 
 

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