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2006 Fearless Forecast

By Richard Harris
September 7, 2006
 

Recently, a group of 13 knowledgeable football experts, including five from here at FantasyFootballExperts.com, took part in the “2006 Fearless Forecast.” The group was asked to predict the finishing order for each NFL Division, as well as the four wild-card teams for the playoffs. In addition, they answered 12 open-ended questions regarding the 2006 season. Aside from a few surprising opinions, most of the analysts came up with similar views on how well the various players and teams will make out in the 2006 NFL year. 

The list of polled experts is comprised of: Mike Davis, Brad Haines, Dan Hershberg, Michael Mai, and myself, Rich Harris, of FantasyFootballExperts.com, Chuck Benkiel of FantasyFootballRadio.com, Greg Kellogg of GridironGrumblings.com, Marc Lawrence of www.Playbook.com, Steve Overmyer of SportsNet NY, Matt Pitzer of USA Today Sports Weekly, Brian Schneider of Humware Media Corp., Steve Siniski of FSRU.com, and Carl Weatherford of CoachBox.com

The Standings 

AFC East

Predicted Finish

First-place Votes

Wildcard Votes

New England

1

8

0

Miami

2 (WC)

5

6

Buffalo

3

0

0

NY Jets

4

0

0

AFC North

Predicted Finish

First-place Votes

Wildcard Votes

Cincinnati

1

8

4

Pittsburgh

2 (WC)

3

5

Baltimore

3

2

3

Cleveland

4

0

0

AFC South

Predicted Finish

First-place Votes

Wildcard Votes

Indianapolis

1

12

1

Jacksonville

2

1

2

Houston

3

0

0

Tennessee

4

0

0

AFC West

Predicted Finish

First-place Votes

Wildcard Votes

Broncos

1

10

1

Kansas City

2

1

1

San Diego

3

2

3

Oakland

4

0

0

NFC East

Predicted Finish

First-place Votes

Wildcard Votes

NY Giants

1

8

1

Dallas

2 (WC)

5

4

Philadelphia

3

0

4

Washington

4

0

4

NFC North

Predicted Finish

First-place Votes

Wildcard Votes

Chicago

1

12

0

Minnesota

2

1

0

Detroit

3

0

0

Green Bay

4

0

0

NFC South

Predicted Finish

First-place Votes

Wildcard Votes

Carolina

1

12

1

Tampa

2 (WC)

1

6

Atlanta

3

0

1

New Orleans

4

0

0

NFC West

Predicted Finish

First-place Votes

Wildcard Votes

Seattle

1

11

1

Arizona

2

2

4

St. Louis

3

0

0

San Francisco

4

0

0

Who will win the AFC Championship? 

Indianapolis:  After a nearly undefeated season and finishing 14-2 in 2005, the Colts (eight votes) were unsurprisingly the decisive favorite to represent the AFC in Super Bowl XLI.  The Colts were also the top pick in 2004 and 2005, so the “Law of Averages” is in our panel’s favor. The remainder of the votes were split between the Bengals (2), the Ravens (1), the Broncos (1), and the Chargers (1).  Oddly, the reigning NFL champs, the Pittsburgh Steelers, did not receive a single vote.  The bold San Diego pick came from Mai, who said “I know Philip Rivers is raw and untested, but so was Ben Roethlisberger when he led the Steelers to the AFC title game in his rookie year. Behind an improving, solid defense and led by Tomlinson and Gates, the Chargers take advantage of a weaker AFC and advance to the Super Bowl.”  The poll’s consensus was that the Chargers would not even make the playoffs, as they received more last-place votes in the AFC West than they did playoff votes (5). 

Who will win the NFC Championship?

Carolina:  The Panthers (six votes) were picked for the second year in a row to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.  With such firepower as Jake Delhomme, Steve Smith, and DeShaun Foster and a defense that ranked third overall last year, this comes as no surprise.  With half as many votes, the NY Giants (3) came in second to lead the NFC Conference.  Schneider believes that the stage is set for the G-Men to go far, saying “Manning (Eli) is poised to lead his team with a well-rounded offense, and their defense will be strong enough to hold opponents below what their offense will put up.”  The other four votes went to the Dallas Cowboys (two) and Seattle Seahawks (two).  Personally, I have waffled between the Seahawks and the Panthers all summer.  I covered all of the bases, however, picking Seattle on our radio show and Carolina in this poll. 

Who will win the Super Bowl?      

Indianapolis:  In a photo finish, the Colts (four votes) nudged past the Panthers (three) as the favorite to take the trophy home in Super Bowl XLI. And what gives the Colts this slight advantage over the Panthers?  Weatherford says, “They’re more well-rounded.”  That might be true, but the loss of RB Edgerrin James might be too difficult to overcome, so I went with the Panthers (and the Seahawks on the radio show).  The rest of the votes were extremely varied this year. Baltimore (1) might seem far fetched to most, but given Pittsburgh’s 2005 Super Bowl run as a sixth seed in the playoffs, it is not out of the question.  With presumably most of the thanks going to RB Shaun Alexander, Seattle (1) was also a pick for the Super Bowl winner.  Dallas (1), Cincinnati (1), and Denver (1) were individual favorites, as well. Lastly, one vote went to the Chargers (1). With this dark horse pitted supposedly against the Giants, Mai says, “It will not be the attractive matchup most people want because the Colts or Steelers won’t be there, but in what will be an exciting, close game, Tomlinson outplays Barber and the Chargers win it all.”  Personally, I think we need to get Michael back on his meds. 

What team do you expect to surprise the most (in a positive way)? 

Baltimore: In yet another very close vote, the Ravens (three votes) barely stood above Arizona (two) and Miami (two). With an always-formidable defense, Schneider feels that Baltimore will get over the hump with “newly acquired Steve McNair, a deep running game and a very solid receiving corps.” I voted for the Dolphins to make a big splash, thanks to an easy schedule and the addition of QB Daunte Culpepper.  One vote each went to Detroit, Tampa Bay, Washington, Carolina, Cincinnati, and Philadelphia.  Haines says that the Bengals “will bounce back and dominate the AFC” after being derailed in the playoffs by Carson Palmer’s knee injury.  Davis believes that Philadelphia will rebound from last year’s debacle due to “a soft schedule outside of their division.”

What team do you think will be the most disappointing? 

Dallas: With an extremely difficult schedule, including games in the ultra-competitive NFC East, the Cowboys (three) came in first as the team most likely to disappoint this season.  Voters, such as Lawrence, also see the addition of WR Terrell Owens as a negative.  A close second was a three-way tie between Washington (two), Kansas City (two), and San Diego (two). Mai believes that the loss of FB Tony Richardson and OT Willie Roaf, plus and a less-than-stellar defense, will lead to the Chiefs’ demise. “L.J. will not have the 2,000-yard season everyone expects,” says Mai.  San Diego is not destined for greatness this year, according to Schneider, who says “Philip Rivers, although very talented, is not quite ready to take them to the next level.”  The rest of the votes were split between Atlanta (one), Indianapolis (one), Pittsburgh (one), and Philadelphia (one).

Which team will have the most potent offense (yards and points)?

Cincinnati:  The Bengals (five) easily won this category, followed by the Colts (two), Giants (two), Cardinals (two), Seahawks (one) and Broncos (one).  It’s difficult to argue with the pick, especially with Palmer looking healthy.  Schneider agrees, saying “If Palmer can stay healthy, there is no telling how much they can do on offense, and they will give Denver a run for their money for the AFC Championship.”  Ironically, Weatherford, who did not pick Denver win the AFC like Schneider did, picked the Broncos to have the most potent offense.  “There is no shortage of running backs, and Javon Walker will boost them to the top,” says Weatherford.

Which team will have the most dominating defense (yards, points, sacks, takeaways)?  

Carolina:  The Panthers (seven votes) surprisingly beat the Bears (three) in this category.  Baltimore (two) and Seattle (one) also received votes.  I gave the nod to Carolina because of the team’s superior defensive depth.  Mai agreed with my selection, saying “I like the Bears, but my pick is the Panthers. The defensive line is awesome with Peppers, Jenkins and Rucker, and the DBs are also very good.” 

Who will be the offensive MVP?   

Peyton Manning:  Manning (five votes) ran way with this one, with Carson Palmer (one), Larry Johnson (one), Tiki Barber (one), Shaun Alexander (one), Ronnie Brown (one), Chris Chambers (one), Jake Delhomme (one), and Michael Vick (one) splitting the remaining votes.  None of the Manning voters explained their selection, but I suppose they did not need to.  Without James, you have to expect Manning to carry the Colts’ offense. 

Who will be the defensive MVP?  

Brian Urlacher:  Urlacher, the reigning Defensive MVP, barely beat out Julius Peppers with four votes.  Peppers (three) was the only other player to receive more than one vote.  Others who received votes were:  Osi Umenyiora (DE, NY Giants), Sean Taylor (DB, Washington), Shawne Merriman (LB, San Diego), Ed Reed (DB, Baltimore), Dwight Freeney (DE, Indianapolis), and Ray Lewis (LB, Baltimore).

Who will be the Rookie of the Year?      

Reggie Bush:  No surprise here.  Bush led the way with six votes.  Personally, I touted Green Bay LB A.J. Hawk on our radio show, but I came to my senses and voted for the multi-dimensional Bush in this poll.  Others receiving votes were:  DeAngelo Williams (two), Laurence Maroney (two), Matt Leinart (two), and Detroit LB Ernie Sims (one).

Which player will be the biggest surprise (in a positive way)?        

Kurt Warner:  No real consensus here, as Warner won with a meager two votes.  Haines predicts “Warner will stay healthy and lead the Cardinals to the brink of the playoffs.”  Receiving one vote each were: Ben Watson, Reggie Bush, Chris Chambers, Nate Burleson, Willis McGahee, Corey Dillon, Anquan Boldin, Carson Palmer/Daunte Culpepper (Mai cheated and voted twice), Mike Bell, Lee Evans, Steve McNair.  I voted for Watson, thinking that he will become a Gonzalez-like threat, with Deion Branch holding out. 

Which player will be the biggest disappointment?    

Terrell Owens:  T.O. won this “honor” with three votes.  Schneider said “what has started in preseason will carry into the season. Although T.O. will probably have some monster games, his off-field antics will drag the coach and the team down over time.”  Lawrence was also a player hater, saying “His name should be spelled TIrrIll OwIns.”  The only other player to receive more than one vote was the panel’s ROY selection, Bush, with two.  I chose Drew Bledsoe, who will likely either be hurt due to the Cowboys’ porous offensive line or be replaced by upstart backup Tony Romo.  Others receiving votes were:  Brett Favre, Clinton Portis, Kurt Warner, Donovan McNabb, Randy Moss, Santana Moss, and Eli Manning.

 


 

 
  
 

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