The Packers have certainly made it
clear how they have found success: a top ten defense and an excellent
passing attack. Greg Jennings has been incredible, Donald
Driver has been a solid producer (still no games over 30 points—see
Week 2 article), and even James Jones has compelled owners to
start him periodically. The old man Brett Favre is incredibly a
top five fantasy QB. They have been able to cover up their atrocious
running game quite successfully.
The Pack drafted three offensive
linemen (Daryn Colledge, Jason Spitz and Tony Moll)
in 2006 in an effort to shore up their depleted guard positions. Thus
far, these second year players have disappointed, leaving too much
pressure on their quarterback. When questioned this past Sunday about
the pressure Favre had when passing, O-line coach James Campen
admitted, "That's not up to our standards. We expect a lot more.
They're young, but they've played almost 20 games now. I'm really
telling you our guards have to play better. We need to get that shored
up."
Do you notice how Campen’s answer
concerned 20 games—the same number of games we focus on for our usual CQ+
rankings? Obviously, he is studying this website and stealing our
ideas.
Historically, Favre’s bravery will
get him into about as much trouble as it gains him praise. For that
reason, we don’t see these passing statistics (13 TDs vs. 8
interceptions and a passer rating of 93.3) holding course. Turnovers in
bunches are part of the Favre tradition. For this team to have a real
chance at winning the NFC, the linemen better gel quickly to 1) create
“some” running game, as well as 2) provide Favre a bit more time to
throw the ball.
The Lions present a special case.
This team has been talking all season about a new spirit. So far so
good, though. Jon Kitna raised many an eyebrow when he predicted
in the preseason that they would win 10 games. With Mike Martz
at the helm of the offense, many of us expected 50 passes a game. And
while a few games have played out that way this season, the offense has
really—get this—been fairly balanced. It has not been super, but it has
been impressive across the board. And, like the Packers, their defense
has been great (top five). Production is always expected from stars
like Roy Williams, but Kitna, Calvin Johnson, Kevin
Jones, Shaun McDonald and the Detroit defense have been
good-to-very-good fantasy producers all season.
With respect to the O-line, we
predict that the low CQ noted above has already been overcome by the
excessive walk-throughs that this unit goes through each and every
week. Those familiar with this team know how much preparation the
coaches put their O-line through: their film sessions are frequently
interrupted so they can walk through their steps and assignments with
fresh visions of their upcoming opponents. The coaches have, in effect,
condensed their gelling period from what we view as standard (just over
a year), to much less (possibly just under a year). For Kitna’s sake,
they had better get their groove on, as their league-worst sacks allowed
is making him feel David Carr’s pain.
In our opinion, Kitna’s time on the
ground will continue to decrease now that this O-line is coming
together, and with the very impressive skill this team has in the skill
positions, we predict the Lions to edge out the Packers to win this
division.
The Vikings, too, have a great
defense (top 10). In fact, the most striking thing about this division
is how solid the defenses are: the Bears set a nice standard. With
respect to the Vikings’ offense, we couldn’t really think of any players
that are worth talking about.
Oh, wait. There is that rookie
running back from Oklahoma. What’s his name?
This kid is something else, but
don’t forget to give credit to his blockers. Our own Rich Harris
observes that Adrian Peterson spends a lot of time running in
space—not breaking tackles or eluding defenders—because the Viking
O-line puts so many would-be tacklers on their backs. We will point out
that the Vikings O-line is two-faced. From center to left it is
incredible. All-World left guard Steve Hutchinson is, for a
second time, leading the way for his running back to run roughshod over
the NFL (which means that Peterson might well look a lot like the second
coming of Shaun Alexander). The right side of the Viking O-line,
however, is focused on the future, with Anthony Herrera just
recently taking over starting duties at right guard and Ryan Cook
still wet behind the ears. If Tarvaris Jackson develops into a
decent QB, and they obtain decent wideouts, this team could cause some
serious damage down the road.
Although the non-Bears do bear
further review, it appears this division is and will continue to be one
of the strongest in the NFL.
