Working Smarter, Not Harder 

Fantasy owners that can successfully identify up-and-coming talent are better positioned to win. 

Everyone tries to do this, but there is obviously a disparity in scouting abilities between owners.  I see the most aggressive owners taking fliers on players every year.  Of course, the late rounds were designed for fliers.  Taking stabs at unproven talent earlier can be quite risky. 

But such is the nature of the Fantasy Football beast.  After all, the average age of the NFL players is about 26 years.  And the average NFL career only lasts three-and-a-half years.  There simply isn't much time between when most players peak and when they retire.   

Of course, owners don't get any points this year for players' previous seasons' production.  It seemed a very easy choice to draft Priest Holmes first in '05, Kurt Warner in '02, or Emmitt Smith in '97, but draft picks like that depended too much on using the rearview mirror—which is a very easy view—and, ultimately, paid pennies on the dollar to their owners.  Picks like Maurice Jones-Drew in '06, Willie Parker in '05 and Warner in '99, on the other hand, were anything but popular, but won plenty of championships for those few owners that landed them.  The fact of the matter is that the talent carousel is constantly moving players in and out of the league.  It is too easy to focus on past performances but extremely difficult to consistently snag the next big thing. 

Fantasy ballers will generally agree that receivers usually have a longer life span than running backs.  But I challenge the reader now to quantify those variances.  I suspect that most people miss this exception to the rule.  I think that most owners under-value older WRs because of: 1) a fear of geriatrics on their team; and 2) a proclivity to search out the next Marques Colstons of the world.  (By the way, when you land a Marques Colston, it is indeed enjoyable...enjoyable to a point that can be unhealthy.)   

Too often, owners by-pass an experienced veteran in a relatively predictable situation, in deference to the Marshawn Lynches of the world.  Nothing against Lynch, mind you, but I was burned by another PAC-10 rookie a few years back.   

Let's look at some facts.  The following lists rank RBs and WRs—based on a fairly common scoring system—from first through eleventh for last year's production, with the player's age at the beginning of the '06 season. 

RUNNING BACK

1. LaDainian Tomlinson...466 points...27 years

2. Steven Jackson...372...23

3. Larry Johnson...247...26

4. Brian Westbrook...303...26

5. Frank Gore...298...23

6. Tiki Barber...289...31

7. Willie Parker...272...26

8. Maurice Jones-Drew...254...21

9. Rudi Johnson...223...27

10. Ladell Betts...215...27 

11. Reggie Bush...206...21  

WIDE RECEIVER

1. Marvin Harrison...268 points...34 years

2. Terrell Owens...258...32

3. Reggie Wayne...248...27

4. Lee Evans...248...25

5. Chad Johnson...245...28

6. Donald Driver...242...31

7. Javon Walker...241...27

8. Steve Smith...237...27

9. Roy Williams...235...24

10. Torry Holt...227...30 

11. T.J. Houshmandzadeh...213...28  

Breaking down these numbers a bit further, you'll notice only one RB started the season in '06 over the 30-year mark (the now-retired Tiki Barber), while four were 23 or younger.  The longer-in-the-tooth group of receivers claims four 30-somethings (the eldest two ranking at the top of the list)—and no one under the age of 24. 

The biggest factors differentiating those college players that get drafted and those that move on to less exciting careers are speed and quickness—generally God-given skills.  That rule applies to the wide receiver position, no question.  But the best wideouts are the ones that: 1) run very precise routes, 2) position their bodies most beneficially when the ball is within catching distance; and 3) avoid the big hits.  Those last three skills "can" be God-given, but usually are developed and improved upon throughout a receiver's career. 

My claim here is not simply that the best wide receivers outlive their running back counterparts by one or two seasons; you already knew that.  My claim here is that the best wideouts survive because of a combination of the skills listed above—and that skill set helps them lap RBs two, three and occasionally four times. Considering the average life-span of NFLers, those variances are tremendous—and too often overlooked in favor of the next big thing.