The Jacksonville Jaguars, for the past several years, are the closest thing in the NFL to Rodney Dangerfield.  Can you think of any coach out there who in the same moment is uncertain of his job at the end of the season but earnestly looks forward to playing the Indianapolis Colts?  And it’s been that way for Jack Del Rio for more than just this year.  The Jaguars have been consistently in the playoff hunt during the AFC domination of the NFL, yet there are always haterz.  No respect! 

We’ve already offered some commentary—with our ever-present focus on the CQ+—on the Colts (Week 9).  Today, we’ll spend some time on the rest of the teams that make up what we consider the best division in the NFL—even better than the NFC East.   

A quick sidebar regarding college hoops to offer insight on our opinion: 

Since James Naismith invented basketball, there has never been any collegiate conference as incredible as the Big East is these days.  Over the past several years, this conference went from great to unbelievable.  To compete in the Big East, you have to bring your game each and every night.  Any team that goes .500 in the Big East deserves a gold star.  Yet, as powerful as this group is, you will rarely see their teams properly ranked.  If Georgetown has a 23-6 record while Ohio State (from a weak conference which somehow continues to ride—with rusted, antique impunity—on laurels achieved in an era associated more with the Great World Wars than the internet) with a 28-3 record, the tendency, thoughtlessly, is to “appreciate” the fewer losses with higher national rankings.  That is just stupid.  In fact, the younger Davis brother offers you two great rules when filling out your March Madness brackets:  1) Pick every Big East team to win in the first round—irrespective of seeding; and 2) always take the Big East over the Big 10—irrespective of seeding.  In aggregate, your results will be impressive. 

To a far lesser degree, the AFC South is similar:  These guys don’t play around.  Take a look at Houston.  The Texans entered the season with only one superstar, Andre Johnson, who was injured in the second game, and didn’t come back until Week 10.  Even so, in Week 3 they only lost to the Colts by six.  They did have an inexplicable loss to the Falcons in Week 4, but that is the only real disappointment.  Their other four losses were to Jacksonville, Tennessee, San Diego, and Cleveland.  Put another way, half of their losses were to division rivals, and only one loss was taken with Johnson starting (Browns).   

So let’s look a bit further at this division.  Here are the CQ+s as of the beginning of the season for: 

Jags: 60

Titans:  84

Texans:  66

Here are some offensive rankings regarding these three teams: 

It is fairly clear with our experience on the subject that the Jags and Texans started out of the gate with “ok” CQ+s, while the Titans had one of the better CQ+s in the league.   

While the Jags do bring two very capable running backs to the field each Sunday, we suggest that their WR corps is more like a WR corpse.  Including the TE position, we wouldn’t feel comfortable starting any of these guys at any point.  Their “number-one” option, Reggie Williams, averages a whopping two receptions per game.  Any anxious fantasy owner in the playoffs would quickly develop an ulcer watching 60 minutes worth of football, waiting, hoping for those rare opportunities (the plural could just barely be used there, by the way).   

Del Rio’s formula has been consistent in his four years:  1) control the clock with a potent 1-2 rushing attack; and 2) punish opponents with a back-alley tough defense.  While we think the Jags are likely good bets against the Las Vegas line on a weekly basis, they really don’t really offer any fantasy help.  Even the early drafted MoJo has not lived up to expectations due to the time-share arrangement with Fred Taylor. 

The Titans are just behind the Jags in rushing yards per game (fourth).  As opposed to the Jags’ 1-2 punch, the Titans have a 1-2-3-4 punch, with LenDale White (694 rushing yards through Week 12), Chris Brown (342), Vince Young (296) and Chris Henry (104).   

In similar fashion to the Jags, the Titans have a defense in the top third of the league (see Week 3 article), a potent running game, and a bunch of no-name receivers.  And because of the time-share arrangements in the running game, we don’t think Tennessee offers much value in the fantasy world either.  But we wouldn’t want to bet against this team on a weekly basis. 

The Texans are likely the biggest surprise.  In stark contrast to the Jags and Titans, Houston’s running game is unimpressive, but Matt Schaub has gone from an undrafted, unknown fantasy player in 2007, to a top 20 quarterback pick in next year’s draft thanks to eye-opening passing numbers.  And he’s done it—for 7 of 11 games—with a rag-tag duo of journeyman WRs:  Andre Davis and Kevin Walter.  Their second year TE, Owen Daniels, appears to be a promising player in an improving situation (stock rising for 2008).   

How have they pulled this off?  We’d point to the incredible experience that the left (blind) side of the O line brings.  This team’s CQ (66) is “decent,” but if you study the CQ+, you can easily see how they have been able to give Schaub an opportunity to show his stuff.  Remember, for a quarterback, there is a world of difference between having 3.7 seconds and 4.2 seconds to throw the ball.  O line aside, Schaub really has been the show-stopper here.  He’s put together a season that would be much more noticeable if it were not for the outstanding numbers of Tom Brady and Tony Romo, the miraculous Brett “Methuselah” Favre, and the out-of-nowhere performance of Derek Anderson.  Now that he has Johnson back, we expect this team’s impressive offensive numbers to get even better.   

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