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Fantasy Football Tip Sheet

Heading into Week 11

By Richard Harris
November 14, 2007
 

Let’s play a little game.  Below are the starting lineups of two fantasy teams.  Without looking up the stats, I want you to pick which team you would prefer to have.   

Team 1

Team 2

QB Ben Roethlisberger

QB Brett Favre

RB Joseph Addai

RB Reggie Bush

RB Marion Barber

RB Willis McGahee

WR Steve Smith

WR Chad Johnson

WR Plaxico Burress

WR Larry Fitzgerald

WR Greg Jennings

WR Jerricho Cotchery

TE Heath Miller

TE Tony Gonzalez

K Shayne Graham

K Kris Brown

New England Defense

Pittsburgh Defense

Tough choice, isn’t it?  Both teams look pretty good, and they are – in overall performance leagues.  However, if you had Team 2 in a scoring-only league, you’d be an unhappy camper.  Take a look at the stats (OP stands for overall performance, and SO stands for scoring only).   

Team 1

OP Pts

SO Pts

Team 2

OP Pts

SO Pts

QB Ben Roethlisberger

236

89

QB Brett Favre

236

64

RB Joseph Addai

179

54

RB Reggie Bush

171

36

RB Marion Barber

141

42

RB Willis McGahee

147

30

WR Steve Smith

146

36

WR Chad Johnson

156

18

WR Plaxico Burress

152

48

WR Larry Fitzgerald

151

18

WR Greg Jennings

121

36

WR Jerricho Cotchery

125

6

TE Heath Miller

109

36

TE Tony Gonzalez

143

24

K Shayne Graham

85

77

K Kris Brown

87

73

New England Defense

134

30

Pittsburgh Defense

129

12

Total Points:

1303

448

Total Points:

1345

281

As you can see, Team 2 has been slightly more productive in overall-performance leagues, averaging 134.5 points per game, compared to 130.3 for Team 1.  However, in scoring-only leagues, Team 1 is clearly the better squad, averaging 44.8 points per game, compared to a mediocre 28.1 for Team 2.   

Do I have a point?  Oh yes, I do.  Scoring-only leagues are dinosaurs.  They were created in the 80’s, when the Internet was a gleam in Al Gore’s eye.  Back then, the league’s commissioner did the scoring on Tuesday afternoon by looking at the box scores in the USA Today, and simply keeping track of the touchdowns scored was much easier than adding up the yardage and other stats.  Nowadays, we don’t have those issues.  We have online leagues.  Computers add up all of the points, and they do it in real time.   

So, if you’re in a league in which New Orleans FB Mike Karney (2 TDs) has as many fantasy points as the AFC’s leading rusher, Willie Parker (2 TDs), or the Packers’ leading receiver, Donald Driver (2 TDs), tell your commissioner to take off his leisure suit and join the rest of us in the 21st century.   

Moving on to injury news, the Vikings have lost RB Adrian Peterson for at least one week due to a knee (LCL) injury.  He will not require surgery, and the Vikings have said that he will be back this season.  LCL sprains typically sideline a player for 2-6 weeks, so pick up Chester Taylor if he’s available in your league.   

Other players who were banged up in Week 10 included:  WR Eddie Kennison (hamstring), QB Jon Kitna (back), RB Kevin Jones (foot), WR Joe Jurevicius (knee), TE Todd Heap (hamstring), RB LenDale White (knee), WR Brandon Jones (concussion), QB Josh McCown (hip), WR Isaac Bruce (hamstring), TE Tony Scheffler (chest), QB Brian Griese (shoulder), RB Marshawn Lynch (ankle), and RB DeShaun Foster (toe).  As of now, all of those players are considered questionable for Week 11.   

Let’s take a look at the market. 

STOCK RISING

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WR Larry Fitzgerald (Arizona) – He has had at least four receptions and 74 yards in eight straight games, and with Anquan Boldin slowed by a lingering hip injury, Fitzgerald figures to remain the number-one target in Arizona.  More importantly, four of his next five games will be against defenses that rank 24th or worse against the pass. 

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TE Jeremy Shockey (NY Giants) – Shockey caught a career-high 12 passes for 129 yards and a score against the Cowboys on Sunday.  With WR Plaxico Burress continuing to be slowed by an ankle sprain, look for the surly tight end to remain a main cog in the Giants’ offense for the rest of the season.  Better yet, five of Shockey’s next six games will be against defenses that rank 21st or worse against the pass. 

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WR Hines Ward (Pittsburgh) – Since returning from a knee injury four weeks ago, Ward has had at least seven receptions and 78 yards in three of four games, and he has scored a total of three TDs over that span.  Look for him to continue to produce down the stretch, as four of his next six games will be against defenses that rank 18th or worse against the pass. 

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WR Bernard Berrian (Chicago) – Assuming that Rex Grossman continues to start at quarterback, you can expect good things from Berrian.  Compared to Brian Griese, Grossman is better suited for throwing the deep ball, and Berrian is at his best on deep routes.  Also working in Berrian’s favor is that five of his remaining seven games will be against defenses that rank 19th or worse against the pass. 

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RB Ryan Grant (Green Bay) – On Sunday, Grant rushed for 119 yards and a score against a Minnesota defense that was giving up less than 71 yards per game on the ground.  Look for more solid performances from the former Golden Domer, as four of his next six games will be against defenses that rank 18th or worse against the run. 

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RB Selvin Young (Denver) – The undrafted rookie has started in two of the past three games due to Travis Henry being sidelined with rib and knee injuries, respectively.  In those two starts, Young rushed for 180 yards and a score on 38 carries and caught nine balls for 69 yards.  With Henry facing a year-long suspension, Young could get a lot more work down the stretch.  Henry’s fate is expected to be determined next week.  

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RB Jessie Chatman (Miami) – Since taking over for the injured Ronnie Brown, Chatman has averaged 125 total yards per start.  His upcoming schedule is not overly favorable – four of his next six opponents rank 11th or better against the run – but you’ll definitely want him in your lineup when the Dolphins face the Jets and the Bills. 

STOCK FALLING

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QB Steve McNair (Baltimore) – The question on everyone’s mind was finally answered on Sunday.  We now know that the Ravens’ anemic offense is worse than the Bengals’ pathetic defense, and much of the blame falls on McNair’s shoulders.  He can’t hold on to the ball, he can’t throw it deep, he can’t run anymore, and he can’t stay healthy.  The good news is that Kyle Boller will start for the Ravens over the next 2-3 weeks because McNair is “nursing a shoulder injury.” 

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QB Damon Huard (Kansas City) – The Brodie Croyle era has started in KC. 

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WR Marty Booker (Miami) – So much for Booker taking over for Chris Chambers as the No. 1 receiver in Miami.  He’s been held under 46 yards and without a score in six straight games.  

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RB Cedric Benson (Chicago) – What a disappointment Benson has been.  On Sunday, he faced an Oakland defense that ranked 30th against the run and was allowing 5.1 yards per carry.  Benson had a decent day, rushing for 76 yards and a TD, but he needed 29 carries to do so, meaning that he averaged less than three yards per attempt.  It will be a lot tougher for the third-year back for the rest of the way, as six of his last seven opponents rank 14th or better against the run. 

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WR Plaxico Burress (NY Giants) – In his last three games, Burress has been held to fewer than 44 yards and without a score.  His decrease in production likely has something to do with his lingering ankle injury.  After Sunday’s loss to Dallas, the wide receiver said that his ankle was bothering him more than it had all season. 

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WR Anquan Boldin (Arizona) – A less-than-100-percent Boldin has been limited to 40 or fewer yards in three consecutive games, and now, the Cards are saying that the hip injury that caused him to miss three games earlier this year will likely hamper him for the rest of the season. 

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QB Peyton Manning (Indianapolis) – Manning’s skills aren’t declining, but a tough schedule and a banged-up supporting cast might prevent him from posting his usual stellar numbers.  Four offensive starters – WR Marvin Harrison, TE Dallas Clark, LT Tony Ugoh and RT Ryan Diem – could miss Week 11 and more.  Of that group, Harrison is the biggest concern because his knee injury will likely hamper him for the rest of the season.  As for the schedule, five of the Colts’ last seven games will be against defenses that rank 13th or better against the pass.  

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K Adam Vinatieri (Indianapolis) – Mr. Clutch has been anything but in the past two games, missing three field goals, including a game-winner from PAT range in Sunday’s loss at San Diego.

BEAR MARKET

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WR Mark Clayton (Baltimore) – He finally had a decent game, catching eight balls for 107 yards against the Bengals on Sunday.  With fellow WR Demetrius Williams likely to miss at least a couple of games with a high ankle sprain, Clayton should continue to be involved in the offense. 

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TE Donald Lee (Green Bay) – We’re just nine games into the season, and Lee has already reached a career high for receiving yards with 409.  He has been very consistent this season, catching at least three passes in every game. 

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TE Leonard Pope (Arizona) – In his past three games, Pope has caught eight balls for 87 yards and three scores, and he should continue to be fairly productive due to Boldin’s injury and the Cards’ soft schedule. 

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RB Antonio Pittman (St. Louis) - Pittman, who was drafted in the fourth round in April by the Saints, ran well against his former team on Sunday, gaining 53 yards on seven carries.  That performance likely earned him the right to start if Steven Jackson (groin and back) would suffer a setback. 

IDP ALERT

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DB Gibril Wilson (NY Giants) – With 14 tackles (and one pick) on Sunday vs. Dallas, Wilson now ranks second among defensive backs with 65 stops on the season.  

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LB Will Witherspoon (St. Louis) – Witherspoon has 29 tackles and two sacks in his past three games. 

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DL Jovan Haye (Tampa Bay) – This unheralded third-year pro out of Vanderbilt ranks seventh among defensive linemen with 40 tackles, and he also has four sacks on the season. 

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DB Antonio Cromartie (San Diego) – This exceptional athlete leads the league with six interceptions, all of which came in his last four games.  He returned one of those picks for a score, and two weeks ago, he also returned a missed field goal 109 yards for a touchdown.  The problem is that Cromartie is not yet a full-time starter, and he is averaging just two tackles per game. 

STOCK MAY NEVER BE HIGHER

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WR James Thrash (Washington) – Thrash caught five balls for 85 yards and two scores against the Eagles on Sunday, but don’t even think about picking him up.  First of all, he’s been in the league for 11 years and has never posted great numbers over a season.  Secondly, QB Jason Campbell is not going to pass for more than one TD in a game many more times this year; he’s done it only twice so far this season.  Thirdly, the man that Thrash started for on Sunday, Santana Moss (heel), should be back in the starting lineup this week.  Lastly, Thrash might miss a few games due to a sprained ankle that he suffered on Sunday. 

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RB Kevin Jones (Detroit) – Jones scored a touchdown on Sunday, but he didn’t do much else.  The Lions turned in the worst rushing performance in modern NFL history when they posted minus-18 yards in their loss to the Cardinals.  Jones, who didn’t start until Week 7 due to a serious left foot injury that he suffered last season, left the game twice due to soreness in the foot.  The lingering injury, combined with a remaining schedule that includes five games against top-10 run defenses, doesn’t bode well for Jones to post big numbers for the rest of the season. 

STOCK MAY NEVER BE LOWER

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Tennessee Defense – The Titans came into Sunday’s game vs. Jacksonville ranked second in the NFL for total yards allowed and points allowed.  They also topped the league in rushing defense, allowing just 66 yards per game.  The Jags, however, ran for 166 yards and put 28 points on the scoreboard.  I wouldn’t worry too much about Sunday’s performance.  Tennessee was missing two starting defensive linemen, including stud DT Albert Haynesworth, and top corner Nick Harper was lost during the contest due to a concussion.  All three starters could be back as soon as this week. 

A FINAL THOUGHT 

Is there such a thing as a demoralizing victory?  If there is, the Chargers suffered one on Sunday night.  An injury-depleted Colts squad gave up two special teams touchdowns, QB Peyton Manning threw a career-high six interceptions, and an Indy interception return for a touchdown was called back due to inadvertent whistle.  Despite all of that, the Chargers needed the greatest clutch kicker in NFL history to miss a chip-shot FG to earn a victory.   

Where is Marty Schottenheimer when you need him? 

 

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