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Fantasy Football Tip Sheet

Heading into Week 9

By Richard Harris
October 31, 2007
 

Football handicappers have long known that inclement weather is a great equalizer.  For you non-gambling types, that means you should bet on the underdog in bad weather games.  It also means that you should be leery of starting your fantasy players under similar conditions.   

Extreme cold, high winds, rain, sleet, and/or snow usually lead to ugly, low-scoring affairs, and the individuals’ numbers are generally lower than normal in those games.  The players most negatively affected by poor weather are quarterbacks and wide receivers, while team defenses can actually benefit, as the opposing offenses struggle to hold on to the ball and score. 

The NFL’s “grand” experiment in the UK this past Sunday gave some of us a not-so-subtle reminder of how bad weather can affect a game.  The contest between the Giants and the Dolphins at Wembley Stadium in London was played in a steady rain.  To make matters worse, the field surface was natural grass, and it was a type of turf that didn’t hold up well with 22 American footballers trampling on it at the same time.  The end result was a 13-10 yawner that the Giants won, and those owners who started QB Eli Manning (8-of-22 for 59 yards) and WR Plaxico Burress (2 catches for 14 yards) were sadly disappointed.   

The lesson to be learned here is that you should always check the weather before finalizing your lineups.  For example, FFEx had Manning and Donovan McNabb ranked closely together for this past Sunday’s games.  McNabb was going to be playing at Minnesota in a dome, and if you knew that Manning was about to play in a muddy monsoon in London, you should, of course, start the Philly quarterback.   

By the way, you can easily check the weather for all the team’s home stadiums at this page:  http://fantasyfootballexperts.com/nfl_weather.htm.   

The injuries continued to pile up in Week 8.  Those who were banged up included:  QB Matt Schaub (concussion), QB Vinny Testaverde (Achilles), QB Kelly Holcomb (back), QB Trent Edwards (wrist), RB Frank Gore (ankle), RB Kenny Watson (concussion), RB Clinton Portis (hand), RB Marshawn Lynch (hip), RB Reggie Bush (ribs), RB DeShawn Wynn (neck), RB Steven Jackson (back), TE Owen Daniels (ankle), WR Laveranues Coles (concussion), and WR Calvin Johnson (back). 

Wynn, the Packers’ leading rusher, will miss the rest of the season.  Schaub, Testaverde, Edwards, Holcomb, and Daniels will likely miss at least one game.  The rest of the group are probable/questionable for their next game.   

Now, let’s take a look at the market conditions.

STOCK RISING

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QB Brett Favre (Green Bay) – After the Monday night game, you’re probably tired of hearing about Brett Favre, but you have to admit that he’s one of the better fantasy quarterbacks out there this season.  The 38-year-old is still throwing the ball with plenty of zip, and his accuracy and decision-making skills are better than ever.  Some of the credit for his success has to go to the Packers’ underrated receiving corps, which just got stronger with the addition of former first-round pick Koren Robinson.  Favre has thrown for at least 286 yards in five of his last six games, and with three of his next four games being against defenses that rank 23rd or worse against the pass, he should have more productive efforts down the road. 

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RB Willie Parker (Pittsburgh) – Parker has rushed for more than 100 yards in six of eight games this season, and on Sunday at Cincinnati, he found the end zone for the first time since Week 2.  With four of his next five games against run defenses that rank 27th or worse, Parker should continue to post big numbers.

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WR Wes Welker (New England) – With TE Ben Watson sidelined with an ankle injury, Welker has taken his game to a higher level, catching 29 passes for 351 yards and three scores in the Pats’ last three games.  Even when Watson returns, which could be as soon as this week, I expect Welker to remain productive because he is so reliable on the underneath routes.

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QB Drew Brees (New Orleans) – Brees is starting to play like we expected him to.  In his past three games, he has passed for 801 yards and eight TDs, with only one pick, and in the process, he has re-established his connection with WR Marcus Colston, who has scored four touchdowns over the same span.  You might want to temper your expectations for both players, however, because they have a difficult schedule ahead.

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RB Selvin Young (Denver) – Starter Travis Henry was supposed to take a pain-numbing shot and play against the Packers with injured ribs, but the Broncos decided at game time to keep him out of uniform.  He was replaced by Young, who rushed for 71 yards on 18 carries and made a team-high six catches for 49 yards.  He also had a long run negated by a holding penalty.  Varying reports say that Henry’s status for the rest of the season will be determined in 1-3 weeks, but the general consensus is that he eventually will be suspended for one year for violating the substance abuse policy. 

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WR Lee Evans (Buffalo) – Evans has finally started to heat up, catching 10 balls for 236 yards and one score in his last two games.  Look for him to remain hot for two reasons: 1) five of his next eight games will be against defense that rank 24th or worse for TD passes allowed, and 2) his old buddy, J.P. Losman, who prefers throwing deep to Evans more than Trent Edwards, is back under center for the Bills.

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WR Reggie Brown (Philadelphia) – Disgruntled owners who cut Brown due to his slow start might be regretting that decision now.  In his last three games, Brown has caught 17 balls for 238 yards.  He is, however, still searching for his first TD of the year.  He should find the end zone at least a few times before the season is over because five of the Eagles’ last nine games will be against defenses that rank 21st or worse for touchdown passes allowed.   

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San Diego Defense – The Chargers are definitely regaining their swagger.  The defense has allowed just 27 points in the past three games, and over the same span, the unit has racked up eight sacks and 11 takeaways. 

STOCK FALLING

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WR Anthony Gonzalez (Indianapolis) – The prevailing feeling was that the rookie wide receiver would be a good pick-up if either Marvin Harrison or Reggie Wayne would miss significant time this season.  Well, Harrison has hardly played in the past four games, and over that span, Gonzalez has just caught nine balls for 106 yards and no scores, which was not as productive as Wayne was in Week 8 alone (7-168-1). 

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Chicago Defense – MLB Brian Urlacher is playing with a bad back; strong safety Mike Brown is out for the season, and his replacement, Adam Archuleta, is playing like an 80-year-old man; and numerous other Chicago defenders are playing at less than 100 percent.  As a result, the Bears have allowed an average of 26 points and 387 yards over the last six games. 

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WR Andre’ Davis (Houston) – He is coming off a one-catch game, and with Kevin Walter grabbing everything in sight (36 receptions in the last five games), and Andre Johnson (knee) due back after the Texans’ Week 10 bye, Davis’ future is not looking very bright. 

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WR Antwaan Randle El (Washington) – Randel El has two good games all season – Week 1 and 5.  In the other five games, he has averaged three catches for 41 yards. 

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QB Vince Young (Tennessee) – Young has passed for less than 185 yards in every game this season.  To make matters worse, he has just four touchdowns (3 passing and 1 rushing), and has rushed for less than 28 yards in five of six games.  Other than that, he’s doing just fine.

BEAR MARKET

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TE Vernon Davis (San Francisco) – If Davis is available in your league, you might want to grab him.  The talented second-year pro got off to a very slow start this season.  In his first four games, he didn’t score and was held to less than 24 yards three times, and he missed two contests due to a knee injury.  Well, last week against the Saints, the 49ers finally started to get the ball to Davis, and he finished with six receptions for 71 yards and one TD.  With five of the 49ers’ last nine games against defenses that rank 20th or worse against the pass, Davis should continue to be productive in the second half of the season.  

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RB Ryan Grant (Green Bay) – With a 100-yard effort in Denver, the Packers hope that they have finally found a running back in Grant, and he will likely be one of the most added free agents this week.  You should temper expectations, however.  Grant has decent size, speed and power, but he does run a bit upright, making him susceptible to injuries.  Another red flag is that he couldn’t beat out Julius Jones and Darrius Walker in his junior and senior seasons, respectively, for the starting tailback job at Notre Dame.  Most importantly, Grant’s big game on Monday night came against the Broncos’ last-ranked run defense. 

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K Phil Dawson (Cleveland) – Who would have thought that the Browns would have one of the more potent offenses this season?  Their offensive line is playing much better than expected, as is QB Derek Anderson.  And WR Braylon Edwards and TE Kellen Winslow are quickly becoming two of the best at their respective positions.  As a result, the Browns rank fourth in the league for scoring, averaging 27.7 points per game, and Dawson ranks ninth, averaging 8.0 points per game. 

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QB Kellen Clemons (NY Jets) – The second-year pro is taking over for a slumping Chad Pennington.  Clemons should boost the Jets’ downfield passing game, but he is also bound to make a number of rookie-like mistakes.  Overall, I would expect him to produce decent numbers, if for no other reason than the Jets have to pass because their defense stinks. 

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RB Chris Henry (Tennessee) – With the often-injured Chris Brown out with an ankle injury, Henry has seen action in the past two games as the Titans’ No. 2 back.  The speedy rookie has done a fine job in relief of starter LenDale White, rushing 15 times for 105 yards and two scores.  Henry now leads the team with an average of 7.0 yards per carry.  When Brown returns, which could be this week, it will be interesting to see how the carries are divided among the three backs. 

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QB Sage Rosenfels (Houston) – He basically throws as many interceptions as he does touchdowns (15 TDs and 12 INTs for his career), but the Texans are not afraid to put the ball in the air when Rosenfels is under center.  In the past three games, Rosenfels has come off the bench to replace an injured/ineffective Matt Schaub, and in roughly four quarters of action, the backup QB has completed 67.6 percent of his passes for 548 yards, with six TDs and five INTs. 

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RB Adimchinobi Echemandu (Houston) – The Texans have been struggling to run the football this season.  Starter Ahman Green has been slowed by a lingering knee injury, Ron Dayne is averaging just 2.9 per carry, and Samkon Gado was released last week.  Enter Echemandu, a fourth-year pro out of Cal, who came off the bench last week against the Chargers to rush for 62 yards on 10 carries.  He also caught two balls for 11 yards.  With Green still hampered by his injury, Echemandu could start this week vs. Oakland, but that’s assuming that a thigh injury that he suffered at San Diego isn’t an issue.  

IDP ALERT

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LB Mike Vrabel (New England) – The veteran linebacker is still playing on a very high level.  He’s second on the team with 42 tackles, and he leads the Pats in both sacks (8) and forced fumbles (4).  With Vrabel, you get the added bonus that he could catch a few TD passes.  He has 10 for his career, including two this season. 

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LB David Harris (NY Jets) – Last week against Buffalo, the rookie from Michigan replaced an injured Jonathan Vilma (out for the season) and racked up an astounding 17 tackles and one sack. 

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DB LaRon Landry (Washington) – The rookie safety has come up big a couple of times this season to preserve wins for the Redskins.  He’s also one of the leading tacklers in the league among defensive backs with 50 stops. 

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LB John DiGiorgio (Buffalo) – When promising rookie MLB Paul Posluszny was lost for the season in Week 1, DiGiorgio was forced into action.  Since then, the undrafted second-year pro from Saginaw Valley State has averaged 8.5 tackles per game. 

STOCK MAY NEVER BE HIGHER

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RB Thomas Jones (NY Jets) – In his past three games, Jones has rushed for a respectable 267 yards (and no scores) on 59 carries, but over that span, he faced two of the worst run defenses in the league (Cincinnati and Buffalo).  His schedule will be much tougher in the coming weeks, as five of the Jets’ next seven games will be against teams that rank ninth or better against the run. 

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RB Brandon Jacobs (NY Giants) – With three straight 100-yard games under his belt, I don’t know if I would be in a hurry to trade Jacobs, but the team’s schedule in the second half of the season will likely dictate that the Giants throw the ball more than they have in recent games.  The G-men will face just one defense that is better against the pass than the run in their final eight games.  Five of those games will be against top-ten run defenses, and four will be against clubs that rank 24th or worse against the pass. 

STOCK MAY NEVER BE LOWER

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RB LaMont Jordan (Oakland) – After a hot start, Jordan has cooled considerably.  In his past three games, he has rushed for just 87 yards and no scores on 41 carries (2.1 yards per carry).  His receiving numbers have been the only thing preventing him from being a total bust.  Over that same span, he has caught 10 balls for 86 yards.  His schedule is the likely explanation for Jordan’s decline – he has faced much tougher run defenses in his last three games, compared to his first four.  With three of his next five games against defense that rank 20th or worse against the run, I would expect Jordan to pick it up. 

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WR Chad Johnson (Cincinnati) – T.J. Housmandzadeh has emerged as Carson Palmer’s favorite target this season.  To date, he has caught 14 more balls and has scored six more TDs than Johnson. However, don’t feel too sorry for No. 85.  Johnson ranks fourth in the league with 73 targets, while Housmandzadeh ranks first with 88.  Johnson should have plenty of opportunities to reach the end zone in the Bengals’ remaining nine games, five of which will be against defenses that rank 16th or worse for touchdown passes allowed. 

A FINAL THOUGHT

I said in Week 6’s “Tip Sheet” that it appeared to me that the Patriots, motivated by Spy Gate, were running up the score on their opponents.  Three weeks later, I am convinced that they are running up the score.   

Look at last week’s game against Washington, for example.  Leading 38-0 in the fourth quarter, Tom Brady and company were still running the spread offense and were throwing as much as they were running.  Later in the quarter, backup QB Matt Cassel came into the game to nurse a 45-0 lead.  However, much to my surprise, the Pats continued to throw and eventually scored another touchdown.  To make matters worse, they celebrated those two fourth-quarter TDs as if they had just won the Super Bowl in overtime.  It was a classless display.   

By now, everyone has caught on to what the Pats are doing, and Coach Bill Belichick has been taking heat for this from the media, opposing players, and opposing coaches.  Belichick’s response to the criticism has been to play dumb and make believe that he doesn’t understand what the fuss is about.  Well, anyone who has played any type of game knows that there is an unwritten rule for sportsmanship, which is that you don’t rub your opponents noses “in it” when you have a commanding lead.   

The Patriots look so strong that they could continue this unsportsmanlike trend for the rest of the season, and if they do, don’t be surprised if an angered opponent takes a cheap shot at one of their key players, such as Brady.  I, for one, won’t have much sympathy for them if that happens.  They’re bringing it upon themselves by being so arrogant. 

 

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