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Heading into Week 9
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By Richard Harris |
| October 31, 2007 |
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Football handicappers have long
known that inclement weather is a great equalizer. For you non-gambling
types, that means you should bet on the underdog in bad weather games.
It also means that you should be leery of starting your fantasy players
under similar conditions.
Extreme cold, high winds, rain,
sleet, and/or snow usually lead to ugly, low-scoring affairs, and the
individuals’ numbers are generally lower than normal in those games.
The players most negatively affected by poor weather are quarterbacks
and wide receivers, while team defenses can actually benefit, as the
opposing offenses struggle to hold on to the ball and score.
The NFL’s “grand” experiment in the
UK this past Sunday gave some of us a not-so-subtle reminder of how bad
weather can affect a game. The contest between the Giants and the
Dolphins at Wembley Stadium in London was played in a steady rain. To
make matters worse, the field surface was natural grass, and it was a
type of turf that didn’t hold up well with 22 American footballers
trampling on it at the same time. The end result was a 13-10 yawner
that the Giants won, and those owners who started QB Eli Manning
(8-of-22 for 59 yards) and WR Plaxico Burress (2 catches for 14
yards) were sadly disappointed.
The lesson to be learned here is
that you should always check the weather before finalizing your
lineups. For example, FFEx had Manning and Donovan McNabb ranked
closely together for this past Sunday’s games. McNabb was going to be
playing at Minnesota in a dome, and if you knew that Manning was about
to play in a muddy monsoon in London, you should, of course, start the
Philly quarterback.
By the way, you can easily check the
weather for all the team’s home stadiums at this page:
http://fantasyfootballexperts.com/nfl_weather.htm.
The injuries continued to pile up in
Week 8. Those who were banged up included: QB Matt Schaub
(concussion), QB Vinny Testaverde (Achilles), QB Kelly Holcomb
(back), QB Trent Edwards (wrist), RB Frank Gore (ankle),
RB Kenny Watson (concussion), RB Clinton Portis (hand), RB
Marshawn Lynch (hip), RB Reggie Bush (ribs), RB DeShawn
Wynn (neck), RB Steven Jackson (back), TE Owen Daniels
(ankle), WR Laveranues Coles (concussion), and WR Calvin
Johnson (back).
Wynn, the Packers’ leading rusher,
will miss the rest of the season. Schaub, Testaverde, Edwards, Holcomb,
and Daniels will likely miss at least one game. The rest of the group
are probable/questionable for their next game.
Now, let’s take a look at the market
conditions.
STOCK RISING
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QB Brett Favre (Green Bay)
– After the Monday night game, you’re probably tired of hearing about
Brett Favre, but you have to admit that he’s one of the better fantasy
quarterbacks out there this season. The 38-year-old is still throwing
the ball with plenty of zip, and his accuracy and decision-making
skills are better than ever. Some of the credit for his success has
to go to the Packers’ underrated receiving corps, which just got
stronger with the addition of former first-round pick Koren Robinson.
Favre has thrown for at least 286 yards in five of his last six games,
and with three of his next four games being against defenses that rank
23rd or worse against the pass, he should have more productive efforts
down the road. |
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RB Willie Parker (Pittsburgh)
– Parker has rushed for more than 100 yards in six of eight games this
season, and on Sunday at Cincinnati, he found the end zone for the
first time since Week 2. With four of his next five games against run
defenses that rank 27th or worse, Parker should continue to post big
numbers. |
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WR Wes Welker (New England)
– With TE Ben Watson sidelined with an ankle injury, Welker has taken
his game to a higher level, catching 29 passes for 351 yards and three
scores in the Pats’ last three games. Even when Watson returns, which
could be as soon as this week, I expect Welker to remain productive
because he is so reliable on the underneath routes. |
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QB Drew Brees (New Orleans)
– Brees is starting to play like we expected him to. In his past
three games, he has passed for 801 yards and eight TDs, with only one
pick, and in the process, he has re-established his connection with WR
Marcus Colston, who has scored four touchdowns over the same span.
You might want to temper your expectations for both players, however,
because they have a difficult schedule ahead. |
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RB Selvin Young (Denver)
– Starter Travis Henry was supposed to take a pain-numbing shot and
play against the Packers with injured ribs, but the Broncos decided at
game time to keep him out of uniform. He was replaced by Young, who
rushed for 71 yards on 18 carries and made a team-high six catches for
49 yards. He also had a long run negated by a holding penalty.
Varying reports say that Henry’s status for the rest of the season
will be determined in 1-3 weeks, but the general consensus is that he
eventually will be suspended for one year for violating the substance
abuse policy. |
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WR Lee Evans (Buffalo)
– Evans has finally started to heat up, catching 10 balls for 236
yards and one score in his last two games. Look for him to remain hot
for two reasons: 1) five of his next eight games will be against
defense that rank 24th or worse for TD passes allowed, and 2) his old
buddy, J.P. Losman, who prefers throwing deep to Evans more than Trent
Edwards, is back under center for the Bills. |
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WR Reggie Brown (Philadelphia)
– Disgruntled owners who cut Brown due to his slow start might be
regretting that decision now. In his last three games, Brown has
caught 17 balls for 238 yards. He is, however, still searching for
his first TD of the year. He should find the end zone at least a few
times before the season is over because five of the Eagles’ last nine
games will be against defenses that rank 21st or worse for touchdown
passes allowed. |
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San Diego Defense
– The Chargers are definitely regaining their swagger. The defense
has allowed just 27 points in the past three games, and over the same
span, the unit has racked up eight sacks and 11 takeaways.
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STOCK FALLING
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WR Anthony Gonzalez
(Indianapolis) – The prevailing feeling was
that the rookie wide receiver would be a good pick-up if either Marvin
Harrison or Reggie Wayne would miss significant time this season.
Well, Harrison has hardly played in the past four games, and over that
span, Gonzalez has just caught nine balls for 106 yards and no scores,
which was not as productive as Wayne was in Week 8 alone (7-168-1).
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Chicago Defense
– MLB Brian Urlacher is playing with a bad back; strong safety Mike
Brown is out for the season, and his replacement, Adam Archuleta, is
playing like an 80-year-old man; and numerous other Chicago defenders
are playing at less than 100 percent. As a result, the Bears have
allowed an average of 26 points and 387 yards over the last six
games. |
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WR Andre’ Davis (Houston)
– He is coming off a one-catch game, and with Kevin Walter grabbing
everything in sight (36 receptions in the last five games), and Andre
Johnson (knee) due back after the Texans’ Week 10 bye, Davis’ future
is not looking very bright. |
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WR Antwaan Randle El
(Washington) – Randel El has two good games
all season – Week 1 and 5. In the other five games, he has averaged
three catches for 41 yards. |
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QB Vince Young (Tennessee)
– Young has passed for less than 185 yards in every game this season.
To make matters worse, he has just four touchdowns (3 passing and 1
rushing), and has rushed for less than 28 yards in five of six games.
Other than that, he’s doing just fine. |
BEAR MARKET
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TE Vernon Davis (San Francisco)
– If Davis is available in your league, you might want to grab him.
The talented second-year pro got off to a very slow start this
season. In his first four games, he didn’t score and was held to less
than 24 yards three times, and he missed two contests due to a knee
injury. Well, last week against the Saints, the 49ers finally started
to get the ball to Davis, and he finished with six receptions for 71
yards and one TD. With five of the 49ers’ last nine games against
defenses that rank 20th or worse against the pass, Davis should
continue to be productive in the second half of the season.
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RB Ryan Grant (Green Bay)
– With a 100-yard effort in Denver, the Packers hope that they have
finally found a running back in Grant, and he will likely be one of
the most added free agents this week. You should temper expectations,
however. Grant has decent size, speed and power, but he does run a
bit upright, making him susceptible to injuries. Another red flag is
that he couldn’t beat out Julius Jones and Darrius Walker in his
junior and senior seasons, respectively, for the starting tailback job
at Notre Dame. Most importantly, Grant’s big game on Monday night
came against the Broncos’ last-ranked run defense. |
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K Phil Dawson (Cleveland)
– Who would have thought that the Browns would have one of the more
potent offenses this season? Their offensive line is playing much
better than expected, as is QB Derek Anderson. And WR Braylon Edwards
and TE Kellen Winslow are quickly becoming two of the best at their
respective positions. As a result, the Browns rank fourth in the
league for scoring, averaging 27.7 points per game, and Dawson ranks
ninth, averaging 8.0 points per game. |
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QB Kellen Clemons (NY Jets)
– The second-year pro is taking over for a slumping Chad Pennington.
Clemons should boost the Jets’ downfield passing game, but he is also
bound to make a number of rookie-like mistakes. Overall, I would
expect him to produce decent numbers, if for no other reason than the
Jets have to pass because their defense stinks. |
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RB Chris Henry (Tennessee)
– With the often-injured Chris Brown out with an ankle injury, Henry
has seen action in the past two games as the Titans’ No. 2 back. The
speedy rookie has done a fine job in relief of starter LenDale White,
rushing 15 times for 105 yards and two scores. Henry now leads the
team with an average of 7.0 yards per carry. When Brown returns,
which could be this week, it will be interesting to see how the
carries are divided among the three backs. |
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QB Sage Rosenfels (Houston)
– He basically throws as many interceptions as he does touchdowns (15
TDs and 12 INTs for his career), but the Texans are not afraid to put
the ball in the air when Rosenfels is under center. In the past three
games, Rosenfels has come off the bench to replace an
injured/ineffective Matt Schaub, and in roughly four quarters of
action, the backup QB has completed 67.6 percent of his passes for 548
yards, with six TDs and five INTs. |
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RB Adimchinobi Echemandu
(Houston) – The Texans have been struggling
to run the football this season. Starter Ahman Green has been slowed
by a lingering knee injury, Ron Dayne is averaging just 2.9 per carry,
and Samkon Gado was released last week. Enter Echemandu, a
fourth-year pro out of Cal, who came off the bench last week against
the Chargers to rush for 62 yards on 10 carries. He also caught two
balls for 11 yards. With Green still hampered by his injury,
Echemandu could start this week vs. Oakland, but that’s assuming that
a thigh injury that he suffered at San Diego isn’t an issue.
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IDP ALERT
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LB Mike Vrabel (New England)
– The veteran linebacker is still playing on a very high level. He’s
second on the team with 42 tackles, and he leads the Pats in both
sacks (8) and forced fumbles (4). With Vrabel, you get the added
bonus that he could catch a few TD passes. He has 10 for his career,
including two this season. |
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LB David Harris (NY Jets)
– Last week against Buffalo, the rookie from Michigan replaced an
injured Jonathan Vilma (out for the season) and racked up an
astounding 17 tackles and one sack. |
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DB LaRon Landry (Washington)
– The rookie safety has come up big a couple of times this season to
preserve wins for the Redskins. He’s also one of the leading tacklers
in the league among defensive backs with 50 stops. |
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LB John DiGiorgio (Buffalo)
– When promising rookie MLB Paul Posluszny was lost for the season in
Week 1, DiGiorgio was forced into action. Since then, the undrafted
second-year pro from Saginaw Valley State has averaged 8.5 tackles per
game. |
STOCK MAY NEVER BE HIGHER
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RB Thomas Jones (NY Jets)
– In his past three games, Jones has rushed for a respectable 267
yards (and no scores) on 59 carries, but over that span, he faced two
of the worst run defenses in the league (Cincinnati and Buffalo). His
schedule will be much tougher in the coming weeks, as five of the
Jets’ next seven games will be against teams that rank ninth or better
against the run. |
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RB Brandon Jacobs (NY Giants)
– With three straight 100-yard games under his belt, I don’t know if I
would be in a hurry to trade Jacobs, but the team’s schedule in the
second half of the season will likely dictate that the Giants throw
the ball more than they have in recent games. The G-men will face
just one defense that is better against the pass than the run in their
final eight games. Five of those games will be against top-ten run
defenses, and four will be against clubs that rank 24th or worse
against the pass. |
STOCK MAY NEVER BE LOWER
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RB LaMont Jordan (Oakland)
– After a hot start, Jordan has cooled
considerably. In his past three games, he has rushed for just 87
yards and no scores on 41 carries (2.1 yards per carry). His
receiving numbers have been the only thing preventing him from being a
total bust. Over that same span, he has caught 10 balls for 86
yards. His schedule is the likely explanation for Jordan’s decline –
he has faced much tougher run defenses in his last three games,
compared to his first four. With three of his next five games against
defense that rank 20th or worse against the run, I would expect Jordan
to pick it up. |
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WR Chad Johnson (Cincinnati)
– T.J. Housmandzadeh has emerged as Carson Palmer’s favorite target
this season. To date, he has caught 14 more balls and has scored six
more TDs than Johnson. However, don’t feel too sorry for No. 85.
Johnson ranks fourth in the league with 73 targets, while
Housmandzadeh ranks first with 88. Johnson should have plenty of
opportunities to reach the end zone in the Bengals’ remaining nine
games, five of which will be against defenses that rank 16th or worse
for touchdown passes allowed. |
A FINAL THOUGHT
I said in
Week 6’s “Tip Sheet” that it appeared to me that the Patriots,
motivated by Spy Gate, were running up the score on their opponents.
Three weeks later, I am convinced that they are running up the score.
Look at last week’s game against
Washington, for example. Leading 38-0 in the fourth quarter, Tom
Brady and company were still running the spread offense and were
throwing as much as they were running. Later in the quarter, backup QB
Matt Cassel came into the game to nurse a 45-0 lead. However,
much to my surprise, the Pats continued to throw and eventually scored
another touchdown. To make matters worse, they celebrated those two
fourth-quarter TDs as if they had just won the Super Bowl in overtime.
It was a classless display.
By now, everyone has caught on to
what the Pats are doing, and Coach Bill Belichick has been taking
heat for this from the media, opposing players, and opposing coaches.
Belichick’s response to the criticism has been to play dumb and make
believe that he doesn’t understand what the fuss is about. Well, anyone
who has played any type of game knows that there is an unwritten rule
for sportsmanship, which is that you don’t rub your opponents noses “in
it” when you have a commanding lead.
The Patriots look so strong that
they could continue this unsportsmanlike trend for the rest of the
season, and if they do, don’t be surprised if an angered opponent takes
a cheap shot at one of their key players, such as Brady. I, for one,
won’t have much sympathy for them if that happens. They’re bringing it
upon themselves by being so arrogant.
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