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Fantasy Football Tip Sheet

Heading into Week 5

By Richard Harris
October 2, 2007
 
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In Week 4, we saw RB Brian Westbrook take the early lead in the race for the NFL’s MVP award – and he didn’t even play.   

With Westbrook sidelined with an abdominal strain, the Eagles suffered an embarrassing 16-3 loss to the Giants.  Philadelphia was limited to just 190 total yards of offense.  New York’s defense sacked QB Donovan McNabb 12 times, tying an NFL record shared by four other teams.  Coming into the game, the G-men had only four sacks in three games.  DE Osi Umenyiora had six sacks, which was as many as he had all of last season.  In addition to the sacks, Philadelphia committed 15 penalties for 132 yards.   

With Westbrook in the lineup the week before against Detroit, the Eagles racked up 536 yards and 56 points (and gave up just three sacks).  The speedy running back contributed 110 yards on the ground and 111 through the air and scored three touchdowns.  

Second-year pro Winston Justice, who started in place of injured LT William “Tra” Thomas, has taken most of the blame for Sunday night’s debacle at the Meadowlands.  I believe, however, that the absence of Westbrook was the main reason that the Eagles’ offense went backward as much as it did forward.   

Without Westbrook, the Eagles can be easily stopped.  Their receivers and their other backs are pedestrian.  For example, their top wideout, Kevin Curtis, was nothing more than the No. 3 receiver during his four years with the Rams.  Westbrook is the only Philadelphia player that opposing defenses truly fear.  He is a weapon as both a runner and a receiver, and he can take it the distance any time that he touches the ball.  

Westbrook is also a fantasy-point-producing machine, but there are many Sundays when his owners are unsure that he will play.  More than not, he doesn’t practice during the week because of one injury or another, and he’s frequently listed as “questionable.”  The good news is that he usually plays.  However, there are times, like Sunday night, when he doesn’t, and we all know that starting an inactive player is a killer.   

There is a solution to the Westbrook dilemma – make sure that you also have Correll Buckhalter on your roster.  If you own the backup RB, you can plug him into your lineup at the last minute.  If you did that on Sunday night, you got a respectable 13.8 points from Buckhalter, which is much better than a big, fat zero.  Of course, this takes some additional effort on your part (or your partners!).  You have to check the inactive lists a half-hour before the start of the Eagles game to see if Westbrook will be in uniform (see Injury Roundup), and then make the necessary lineup adjustments.   

Running backs seemingly get injured more often than players at other positions, and Buckhalter is not the only backup that can be an asset to your squad.  Justin Fargas (Oakland), Selvin Young (Denver), Kenton Keith (Indianapolis) and Ernest Graham (Tampa Bay) were all effective this past week in relief of the injured starting RBs on their respective teams.   

Of the backs that went down on Sunday (Carnell Williams - knee, LaMont Jordan - back, Joseph Addai - shoulder, Travis Henry – knee and ankle), Williams is the only one that was lost for the season.  The rest are considered questionable at this point in time.   

Other players who were injured in Week 4 included TE Todd Heap (hamstring), QB Alex Smith (shoulder), WR Marvin Harrison (knee), WR Isaac Bruce (hamstring), and WR Chad Johnson (ankle).  We know that Smith will miss at least two weeks.  The rest are questionable.   

Now, let’s take a look at the market.

STOCK RISING

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RB Ronnie Brown (Miami) – The threat of losing his starting job appears to have lit a fire under Brown.  After back-to-back tremendous weeks, he now leads the NFL in total yards with 559.

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WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh (Cincinnati) – He leads the league in catches with 39, while teammate Chad Johnson is second in receiving yards with 495.  What’s interesting is that Houshmandzadeh has two more TDs than the ever-popular Johnson.  In fact, T.J. has nine TDs in his last 10 games, while Johnson has just three over that same span.

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WR Dwayne Bowe (Kansas City) – The Chiefs’ passing game is waking up, and Bowe is one of the major reasons for the improvement.  This impressive rookie has scored in three straight games, and he’s caught 13 passes for 235 yards in the past two. 

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WR Santonio Holmes (Pittsburgh) – Holmes is definitely the big-play receiver in Pittsburgh, but he does his best work when Hines Ward is out of the lineup.  In the past two games that Ward has missed, Holmes has caught 10 balls for 252 yards and three TDs.  Ward is still the guy that the Steelers will count on to move the chains, but Holmes is on pace to lead the team in receiving yards and touchdowns.

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WR Deion Branch (Seattle) – QB Matt Hasselbeck is spreading the ball around quite a bit, but Branch is the most effective of the bunch. 

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TE Dallas Clark (Indianapolis) – Even before Marvin Harrison’s injury, Clark was a major part of the Colts’ offense.  If Harrison misses any time, look for the tight end to pick up the slack. 

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QB Matt Schaub (Houston) – Wow, not even losing his starting tailback and both of his starting wideouts could prevent Schaub from having a solid game.  This guy is the real deal. 

STOCK FALLING

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WR Bryant Johnson (Arizona) – With QB Matt Leinart struggling and with the Cards becoming more of a run-oriented team, Johnson has been rendered a non-factor, even when Anquan Boldin is out of the lineup. 

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K Jeff Wilkins (St. Louis) – The Rams have a host of problems, and Wilkins hasn’t helped by missing four field goals in the last three games. 

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San Diego Defense – This unit is like its head coach – lacks aggressiveness and passion.

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RB Cedric Benson (Chicago) – How bad is Benson doing?  Bears fans are yearning for the return of Thomas Jones as if he was the second coming of Walter Payton.  The immediate outlook for Benson, who is averaging just 3.2 yards per carry, is not very bright.  His next three games will be against the Packers (15th vs. the run), the Vikings (1st vs. the run), and the Eagles (5th vs. the run), and the first two teams on that list have yet to give up a rushing TD this season. 

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RB Laurence Maroney (New England) – It appears that the Pats will use a two-back system all year, with Sammy Morris playing the role of power back Corey Dillon.  You can’t blame them – Maroney is much more explosive, but he can’t stay healthy.  And Morris’ 100-yard effort on Monday night didn’t help, even if it was against the Bengals’ hapless defense.

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WR Torry Holt (St. Louis) – Holt is tied for 12th in the league in receptions with 23, which is respectable, but his 11.4 yards-per-reception average is disconcerting.  The Rams have so many issues that it is difficult to say if Holt’s problems are a result of the players around him or the lingering soreness in his surgically repaired knee. 

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WR Steve Smith (Carolina) – No touchdowns and 42 receiving yards in the past two games is bad enough, but now, we’re hearing that QB Jake Delhomme’s injured elbow may require season-ending surgery.  Ouch!

BEAR MARKET

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QB Daunte Culpepper (Oakland) – He might not have the mobility that he once had, and his 5-of-12 passing performance was hardly impressive, but Culpepper’s 5-TD effort against the Dolphins likely earned him at least a few more starts. 

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RB Michael Pittman (Tampa Bay) – With Carnell Williams done for the season, Pittman and Ernest Graham will share the workload at running back.  It’s difficult to say who will be more productive.  Graham will likely get the majority of the carries, including the goal-line touches, but Pittman will likely be more involved in the passing game. 

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WR Patrick Crayton (Dallas) – Yeah, I know, you cut him last week.  Everyone did.  I highly doubt that Crayton will outplay Terrell Owens many more times this season, if any, but if he can continue to hold on to the ball, he could be a decent receiver to have on your bench.         

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WR Ike Hilliard (Tampa Bay) – Like the majority of the Bucs’ skill players, Hilliard is closer to collecting a social security check than he is to the prime of his career.  However, the sure-handed veteran is a nice fit for an offense that relies a lot on short- and medium-range passes. 

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WR Andre’ Davis (Houston) – Davis, who began his career with the Browns in 2002, has teased us before with flashes of brilliance.  Hopefully, he has matured and will play up to his potential.  With a 100-yard effort and a TD against the Falcons, he likely earned more playing time.  At a minimum, he could help your team for a couple of weeks.  No. 2 receiver Jacoby Jones (shoulder) could be back this week, but No. 1 WR Andre Johnson (knee) probably won’t be. 

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QB Kurt Warner (Arizona) – The former MVP is clearly outplaying Leinart, and it’s probably just a matter of time before the Cards give up on their ridiculous two-QB experiment.

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RB Pierre Thomas (New Orleans) – As of now, veteran Aaron Stecker is expected to share some of the rushing load with Reggie Bush, but keep an eye on Thomas, the third leading rusher of this preseason.  The undrafted rookie out of Illinois led the Saints with 190 yards and averaged 5.8 yards per carry during the exhibition season.  He was so impressive that the Saints cut highly touted fourth-round pick Antonio Pittman. 

IDP ALERT

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DL Darnell Dockett (Arizona) – This promising young defensive tackle very quietly ranks second in the league in sacks with 5.5. 

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DL Marques Douglas (San Francisco) – Douglas produces steady tackle numbers, and he’ll get you a few sacks, too. 

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LB D.J. Williams (Denver) – The Broncos’ run defense stinks, but Williams is racking up a lot of tackles at his new position, MLB.

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LB Ernie Simms (Detroit) – This speedy youngster ranks fifth in the league with 36 stops. 

STOCK MAY NEVER BE HIGHER

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QB Steve McNair (Baltimore) – “The toughest guy in the league” had a 300-yard game, but the Ravens scored just 13 points and lost (to the Browns!).  McNair is supposedly still bothered by a sore groin, and I am still bothered by the fact that he can’t stay healthy and can’t throw the ball down the field. 

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QB Chad Pennington (NY Jets) – Pennington completed a gaudy 32-of-39 for 290 yards against Buffalo’s last ranked defense.  Big deal.  His team scored just 14 points and lost.  RB Thomas Jones had no room to run because the Bills didn’t think that the Jets could beat them deep, and they were correct.  The Jets need to give Kellen Clemens a chance. 

STOCK MAY NEVER BE LOWER

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QB Eli Manning (NY Giants) – How many more times this season are the Giants going to get 12 sacks in a game?  The answer is, none.  The G-men still have a very shaky secondary, and they’ll need Manning to throw for more than 135 yards in plenty of games. 

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RB Willie Parker (Pittsburgh) – Maybe you can find a panicked owner who is looking to unload Parker after his disappointing performance in Arizona.  What that owner might not realize is that the Cards’ underrated defense is ranked 11th against the run.  I’m a little concerned that Parker has only one TD this season, but five of the Steelers’ next eight games will be against teams with run defenses that rank 28th or worse.   

A FINAL THOUGHT

There are a number of disappointing teams out there this season, but the 1-3 Chargers have to top the list.  As a result, it has become fashionable to criticize GM A. J. Smith for firing Marty Schottenheimer.  The Smith bashing makes me very sad – sad because no one listened to me over the past two seasons when I said on our radio show that this guy was a stubborn prick.   

I didn’t like the way he handled the Antonio Gates holdout, I didn’t like the way he treated a disgruntled Donnie Edwards, I didn’t like that he let Drew Brees go (neither did Schottenheimer, who wanted to keep Brees), and I certainly thought firing Schottenheimer and hiring Norv Turner were bad moves.  The bottom line is that Smith puts his personal pride ahead of what’s best for the team.  If he doesn’t like you – you’re gone.   

My friend Jay Posner, who covers the Chargers for the San Diego Union-Tribune, says that the team’s major problems are the defense and the offensive line.  I respect Jay, and I don’t disagree, but it leads me to ask, “why are those players and the other players on this team not playing as well as they did last year?”

I think the loss of the fiery Schottenheimer was emotionally deflating, especially when he was replaced by the passive Turner, a coach who has not proven that he can win in the NFL.  The players know that their head coach didn’t deserve to be fired.  Last year’s 3-point playoff loss to the Patriots featured four San Diego turnovers and one missed field goal, and the players shoulder most of the blame for those costly mistakes.  The players also know that Smith was looking for any reason to get rid of Marty.   

In the NFL, the difference between winning teams and losing teams is not that great, and having a group of guys that are angry at management and do not respect the crony replacement coach could explain why a team that should be 3-1 has a 1-3 record. 

 

 

 

 

 
 
 

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