Week 1

Tony Romo (Dallas) – So you’re not sold on the latest “golden boy” in Big D?  Well, consider this:  the Giants were horrible against the pass last season (ranked 28th), and they haven’t done much to get better in that department.  DE Michael Strahan will likely see limited action due to his lengthy holdout, OLB Gerris Wilkinson is out for the game, free safety Will Demps is on IR, and CB Sam Madison is as old as dirt.  Rookie CB Aaron Ross won’t make up for all of those problems in his first NFL game.   

Alex Smith (San Francisco) – Remember Week 1 of last season, when Smith lit up Arizona for 288 yards and one TD?  The Cards finished 30th against the pass in 2007, and their new 3-4 defense will probably need a few weeks to work out the kinks.  Smith will also benefit from a rebuilt receiving corps that features former Seahawk Darrell Jackson and budding superstar Vernon Davis. 

Brett Favre (Green Bay) – Favre will open the season at home, but he will face a Philly defense that ranked ninth against the pass in 2006.  Going with a quicker and more agile lineup, the Eagles’ defense should be solid again this season, at least against the pass.  Favre, meanwhile, doesn’t have a lot of weapons at his disposal.  RB Ahman Green is gone, and the two top candidates to replace him, rookie Brandon Jackson (concussion) and Vernand Morency (knee), are unproven and not 100 percent.  To make matters worse, top WR Donald Driver might be slowed by a foot injury, and last year’s No. 2 WR Greg Jennings is coming off a disappointing preseason.  In his last three games vs. the Eagles, Favre has averaged just 169 passing yards, with one TD and six INTs.   

Travis Henry (Denver) – Unlike most people, I am not convinced that Henry will be as prolific on the field in Denver as he has been off of it (he has fathered nine children with nine different women).  However, I do like Mr. Contraception to get off to a good start at Buffalo.  The Bills ranked 28th against the run in 2006, and they got rid of three of their best defenders (MLB London Fletcher, OLB Takeo Spikes, and CB Nate Clements).    

Carnell Williams (Tampa Bay) – As a rookie in 2005, Williams became the first RB in NFL history to begin his career with three consecutive 100-yard performances.   Since his stellar debut, Cadillac has been nagged by injuries and has struggled to get in gear.  Last season, he averaged just 3.5 yards per carry and scored one measly TD.  The good news is that nine of Williams’ first 13 games will be against defenses that ranked 20th or worse against the run last season, including the 22nd-ranked Seahawks in Week 1.  Throw in the fact that FB Mike Alstott (IR) won’t be around to steal his red-zone scores, and Cadillac becomes a top candidate to bounce back from a sub-par 2006 campaign. 
 

Adrian Peterson (Minnesota) – Peterson will likely share the carries with Chester Taylor, but I still like the explosive rookie’s chances in Week 1.  I expect the Vick-less Falcons to struggle to move the ball against a stout Minnesota defense, which, in turn, will give the Vikings a big advantage in terms of time of possession.  Both Peterson and Taylor should have decent days, as their huge offensive line wears down an undersized and undermanned Atlanta defense.   
 

LaMont Jordan (Oakland) – Drafting WR Calvin Johnson and QB Drew Stanton was nice, but what did the Lions do for their defense, which allowed more than 125 yards and one TD per game on the ground?  For now, Jordan doesn’t have to worry about losing carries to Dominic Rhodes (suspended) and rookie Michael Bush (PUP), so use him while you can.    

Jerious Norwood (Atlanta) – The speedy Norwood is the future of the Falcons’ running game, but Week 1 is not the time to start him.  Veteran Warrick Dunn will get the start at tailback, and the Falcons’ two RBs will be facing a Minnesota defense that allowed less than 62 rushing yards per game last season. 

Jerricho Cotchery (NY Jets) – This underrated receiver had his way with New England last season, catching 10 balls for 221 yards and two scores in two games.  The Pats may be everyone’s pick to win the Super Bowl, but their defense is likely to get off to a slow start with Pro Bowl DE Richard Seymour on the PUP list and Rodney Harrison (suspended) not patrolling the secondary.   

Santana Moss (Washington) – First and foremost, let me be the first to tell you that the Dolphins probably have the worst secondary in the NFL.  Last season, they allowed opposing quarterbacks to post a rating of 84.4 (21st in the NFL), and they wouldn’t have done that well if they didn’t have guys like DE Jason Taylor playing upfront.  Moss, meanwhile, is coming off a disappointing 2006 campaign, but he did pick up his game toward the end of last season with Jason Campbell at quarterback, recording two 100-yard efforts and scoring three TDs in the final five games.  
 

Jason Witten (Dallas) – See Tony Romo for my thoughts on the Giants’ D.  I especially like Witten this week because No. 2 WR Terry Glenn (knee) probably won’t be 100 percent if he plays.  In Witten’s last five games against the Giants, he has caught 21 balls for 283 yards and two TDs.   

Calvin Johnson (Detroit) – Johnson should be one of the top receivers in the NFL in the near future, but his pro debut will likely be a quiet one.  Not only will he be facing an Oakland defense that features an excellent secondary, but the rookie will also begin the season on the bench, playing behind Roy Williams and Mike Furrey. 

Neil Rackers (Arizona) – Rackers had an off year in 2006, but this preseason, he appeared to regain his form, making seven of his eight field-goal attempts, including two from 50-plus yards.  He’ll open the season against the 49ers, an opponent that he has tortured in the past.  In Rackers’ last three games against the Niners, he has averaged 14.3 points.   

Oakland Defense – The Raiders will be facing a turnover-prone Detroit team that led the NFC with 38 giveaways last season.  Also, with RB Kevin Jones (foot) unlikely to play, the Lions may be forced to throw often against Oakland’s top-ranked pass defense that allowed less than 151 yards per game last season.   

Shayne Graham (Cincinnati) – The Bengals open the season against the Ravens’ fierce defense that allowed just 12.6 points per game in 2006.  Baltimore also allowed an AFC-low 17 field goals last season.  Graham averaged a respectable 8 points per game against the Ravens in 2006, but he is nursing a hip injury that will likely prevent him from being 100 percent for Monday night’s game.