Week 12

Matt Schaub (Houston) – Pro Bowl WR Andre Johnson is healthy, and in the three games that he has played this season, Schaub has passed for an average of 248 yards, with a total of five TDs and only one INT.  This week, the Texans’ passing tandem will go against the Browns, who rank 31st against the pass (270 ypg.) and have allowed the most TD passes in the NFL this season (23).   

Vince Young (Tennessee) - In his past two games, Young has passed for 562 yards and two scores and rushed for 126 yards and one TD.  He will likely continue to post good numbers this week vs. the Bengals, who score a lot of points but do not play good defense.  Cincinnati ranks 26th or worse in all of the major defensive categories (run, pass, total, and scoring).   

Eli Manning (NY Giants) – Manning has had back-to-back decent games, passing for a total of 519 yards and two scores.  He should do at least that well this Sunday against the Vikings’ last-ranked pass defense, which is allowing 288 yards per game. 

Vinny Testaverde (Carolina) – Last week against the Packers, the ancient one put up his best numbers of the season, completing 19-of-37 for 258 yards, with two scores and two interceptions.  Testaverde did this against a solid defense, and he did it without his top receiver, Steve Smith, who was sidelined due to a shin injury.  Smith is expected back this week vs. New Orleans, and the Saints have a much softer defense than Green Bay.  The Saints rank 28th against the pass and 29th for TD passes allowed, and opposing quarterbacks have posted a passer rating of 101.6, the highest mark in the league.   

Marc Bulger (St. Louis) – Bulger usually posts good numbers against the Seahawks, but I wouldn’t count on him this week.  The Rams’ decimated offensive line continues to struggle, and Bulger was knocked around a lot last week.  He was sacked six times by the 49ers, who had been struggling to pressure opposing quarterbacks going into Week 11.  Now, Bulger must face a Seattle defense that ranks second in sacks with 31 and has allowed an NFL-low five TD passes this season.  When he faced Seattle earlier this season, he was sacked seven times and picked off three times, and he passed for just 225 yards, with no touchdowns.  

Willie Parker (Pittsburgh) – Parker has rushed for less than 53 yards in two of his past three games.  Even so, I would make sure to start him this week vs. Miami.  His first lackluster effort was expected; it happened three weeks ago vs. Baltimore’s second-ranked run defense.  Last week against the Jets, Parker finished with a disappointing 52 yards on 14 carries, but I wouldn’t hold that performance against him because the entire Pittsburgh team played poorly.  This week, Parker should get back on track.  The Dolphins rank last in the league in run defense (155 ypg.), and they have allowed 13 TDs on the ground, which is the second highest total in the league.     

Maurice Jones-Drew (Jacksonville) – The second-year back has scored in 23 TDs in his past 24 games, and this week, he’ll face a Buffalo squad that ranks 31st in total defense.  Last year against the Bills, he scored one TD and racked up 226 all-purpose yards on eight carries, five receptions and three kickoff returns, and with fellow RB Fred Taylor nursing a sore thigh, Jones-Drew may get even more touches this time around.   

Kolby Smith (Kansas City) – With Larry Johnson (foot) still out and Priest Holmes (neck) retiring, two rookies – Smith, a fifth-round pick out of Louisville, and Gilbert Harris, an undrafted fullback out of Arizona – will handle the rushing load for the Chiefs this Sunday.  Smith will likely get the majority of the carries against the Raiders, who have allowed mediocre backs (Ron Dayne, Cedric Benson, and Chester Taylor) to run over them in the past three weeks.  Oakland ranks 31st against the run and has allowed an NFL-high 16 TDs on the ground this season.   

Rudi Johnson (Cincinnati) – Without stud DT Albert Haynesworth (hamstring) in the lineup, the Titans have allowed 332 rushing yards in their past two games and have slipped from first in run defense to fifth.  Haynesworth is questionable for Sunday’s game against the Bengals, but even if he doesn’t play, I would stay away from Johnson, who is splitting carries with Kenny Watson and has rushed for just 82 yards and no scores on 39 carries in his past three games. 

Andre Johnson (Houston) – See Matt Schaub.   

Joey Galloway (Tampa Bay) – The veteran receiver has scored in four of his last five games, and over that span, he has averaged 4.4 receptions and 81 receiving yards.  This week, he’ll go against a Washington defense that will be missing safety Sean Taylor (knee) and has allowed an average of 271 passing yards in its last five games.  When Galloway faced the Redskins last year, he had a solid game, catching four passes for 64 yards and one score.   

Lee Evans (Buffalo) – Evans has caught at least four passes in five straight games, and over that span, he has averaged 101 receiving yards and scored two TDs.  This week, he’ll face the Jaguars, who will be without their top LB, Mike Peterson (hand), and might be missing their top CB, Rashean Mathis (groin).  Even with those guys in the lineup, the Jags weren’t doing very well against the pass.  After allowing 309 yards to San Diego last week, Jacksonville has slipped to 27th against the pass.   

Hines Ward (Pittsburgh) – With Santonio Holmes out for at least one game due to a high ankle sprain, Ward should be QB Ben Roethlisberger’s favorite target on Monday night.  In his past five games, Ward has averaged 5.6 catches and scored three touchdowns, and this week, he’ll be facing a Miami defense that ranks 24th for TD passes allowed.  When he faced the Dolphins last year, Ward caught five balls for 53 yards and a score.   

Bernard Berrian (Chicago) – With Rex Grossman playing at quarterback in the Bears’ last two games, Berrian has caught 13 balls for 191 yards and a score. Assuming that he is not hindered by his sore toe, Berrian should have a solid day against a struggling Denver defense that has allowed an average of 268 passing yards in its last six games.   

Brandon Stokley (Denver) – Stokley has been fairly productive lately, finishing with at least 70 yards in three of his past five games, and over that span, he has scored three times.  This week, he doesn’t have a bad matchup against the Bears, but if Javon Walker returns from his knee injury, which is likely, Stokley will not start and will slip down to the third receiver spot on the depth chart. 

Santana Moss (Washington) – Last week against the Cowboys, Moss did two things that he had not done all season – he finished with 100-plus receiving yards and scored a touchdown.  As encouraging as that performance was, I’d stay away from the speedy Washington wideout.  The heel injury that forced Moss to miss Week 10 is still bothering him, and more importantly, he’ll be facing a very stingy Tampa Bay defense.  The Bucs rank third against the pass, allowing just 178 yards per game, and they also have given up only seven TDs through the air, which is the second lowest total in the NFL. 

Josh Brown (Seattle) – Brown has scored at least 12 points in three of his last four games, including 15 in the Week 7 matchup with the Rams.  In his last five games against St. Louis, Brown has scored an average of 10.6 points.   

Arizona Defense – The Cardinals rank 11th in total defense (312 ypg.), ninth in sacks (25), and seventh in interceptions (12).  What they haven’t done so well is stop opponents from scoring.  They rank 20th in scoring defense, allowing 22.2 points per game.  Preventing the opposition from scoring shouldn’t be too difficult this Sunday, however.  The 49ers’ last-ranked offense hasn’t scored more than 17 points since Week 1.    

Lawrence Tynes (NY Giants) – You can usually rely on three things when you face the Vikings’ defense:  1) they won’t give up much on the ground, 2) they’ll give up a lot through the air, and 3) they’ll often force you to settle for field goals in the red zone.  Minnesota has allowed an NFC-high 21 field goals this season, which is good news for Tynes, who has averaged 8.5 points in his last four games.   

David Akers (Philadelphia) – Akers has scored just 13 points in his last three games, and he doesn’t figure to get hot against a New England defense that has allowed an NFL-low eight field goals this season.  It also doesn’t help that QB Donovan McNabb is doubtful due to ankle and thumb injuries.   

Washington Defense – The Redskins have allowed an average of 33.3 points in their last four games, and this week, they’ll face a Tampa Bay offense that doesn’t make many mistakes.  The Bucs have turned the ball over just 13 times, which is the third fewest in the league, and they have allowed 16 sacks, which is the 12th best total in the league.   

Philadelphia Defense – You don’t want any part of a defense that is facing the Patriots’ high-scoring machine (41.1 ppg.).