Wide Receiver Preview

Ever year, rookies are by far the most overhyped fantasy football players.

At the top of the overhyped list are rookie wide receivers. Owners have highlight-reel catches, runs and touchdowns dancing in their heads from the receivers’ college days, thinking they’ll do the same in the NFL.

The 2007 season is a prime year for owners to get too excited about the rookie wide receiver class. Six receivers were drafted in the first round. Only one draft (2004, seven) saw more receivers taken in the first round, and just three drafts (2005, 2001 and 1988) had as many taken in the top round.

Rarely, however, do those players make a big fantasy impact in their first seasons.

Most of the time, wideouts don’t see a leap in their numbers until their third year as they get accustomed to the NFL’s increased speed and skill. Just two first-round-pick receivers (Michael Clayton in 2004 and Randy Moss in 1998) of 41 in the last 10 seasons have reached the 1,000-yard plateau. And only nine have recorded five touchdowns in their rookie year.

The average season for a first-round pick in the last 10 years is 35 receptions, 486 yards and three touchdowns. Even the average season for top-five picks (46, 621, four) isn’t impressive.

Of this year’s rookie receivers, only Detroit’s athletically freaky Calvin Johnson should be considered as a starting fantasy receiver this season. And the Lion should be considered only a No. 2 WR.

The remainder of the 2007 class should be considered bench players who should be drafted in the late rounds. 

BREAKTHROUGH PLAYER

T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Cincinnati: With Chris Henry and his nine touchdowns suspended, Houshmandzadeh should see an increase in his touchdown total from last season (nine), which already was tied for sixth in the NFL. While teammate Chad Johnson is covered by opponents’ top cornerbacks, Houshmandzadeh has the fourth-easiest cornerbacks schedule, according to ESPN’s fantasy preview magazine. 

OVERRATED

Steve Smith, Carolina: Smith is the most-popular pick as this year’s No. 1 fantasy receiver. He’s had just one elite season, has an average quarterback throwing to him and has an injury history. Draft Smith as the top receiver? No thanks.  

UNDERRATED

Donald Driver, Green Bay: When the top receivers in the NFL are mentioned, Driver gets little love. Yet, along with Chad Johnson, he’s the only receiver to reach the 1,200-yard plateau the last three years. Last year, Driver was the second-most targeted receiver in the league. With Green Bay not having another top-notch receiver, Driver once again will be thrown to a ridiculous amount of times from Brett Favre. 

SLEEPER

Vincent Jackson, San Diego: Jackson scored six touchdowns last season in limited duty. As the Chargers’ No. 1 receiver this season and standing 6-foot-5, he’ll be a favorite target of quarterback Philip Rivers -- who is primed to have a breakout season -- in the end zone. Jackson had 286 yards in San Diego’s last four games and three touchdowns in the last two contests of the 2006 season. Oh yeah, he’s in his third NFL season, the year in which many receivers have their coming out party. 

RANKINGS

1. Marvin Harrison

2. Torry Holt

3. Terrell Owens

4. Chad Johnson

5. Reggie Wayne

6. Larry Fitzgerald

7. Steve Smith

8. T.J. Houshmandzadeh

9. Javon Walker

10. Roy Williams

11. Donald Driver

12. Lee Evans

13. Marques Colston

14. Plaxico Burress

15. Randy Moss

16. Anquan Boldin

17. Hines Ward

18. Andre Johnson

19. Laveranues Coles

20. Reggie Brown

21. Calvin Johnson

22. Darrell Jackson

23. Deion Branch

24. Braylon Edwards

25. Vincent Jackson

26. Mark Clayton

27. Chris Chambers

28. Santana Moss

29. Joey Galloway

30. Terry Glenn